Vegas vs Fantasy Week 14 2018

By Armando Marsal
Armando Marsal


It was not until I began playing DFS that I started using Vegas lines as part of my research and a determining factor when setting up my lineups. These lines can provide so much information each week. It gives you an idea of the potential game flow we could expect. High totals and close spreads, usually indicates a potential shootout. Whereas, a low total with a low spread is a game that is not expected to have a lot of fantasy goodness aside from maybe a defense. These lines are set by math wizards and some of the best handicappers in the world. They spend countless hours studying patterns, teams, and situations. For those who are not familiar, spreads are the amount of points a team is expected to win or lose by. The point total is the amount of points both teams combined are projected to score.

My goal each week is to look through the lines (for the main slate), paint a picture as to what to expect in different situations, and how to attack that game. Let’s dive right into it.

The chart below shows the two games this week with the highest point totals. I included where it opened and the current live line. This can give you an idea of where the public is putting their money on. Generally if the total opens at one number and it begins to rise, the public is betting the over and vice versa.

 

Game Open Total Live Total Movement
Buccaneers vs. Saints 58 55 -3
Raiders vs. Steelers 52 51.5 -0.5

 

 


The Saints and Bucs game has the highest total on the board at 55 points and at this time 61 percent of the bets are on the under. This could be a good reason why the over/under has decreased by three points since it opened. New Orleans has a 32.5 implied team total and Tampa Bay has a 22.5 implied team total. The Saints are favored by 10 points and are receiving 76 percent of the bets against the spread. These two teams met up in Week 1 and the Bucs won 48-40. Since then, the Saints defense has played better, while the Bucs defense remains bad. Both offenses, however, are in great spots. From the Saints side, Drew Brees, Michael Thomas, and Alvin Kamara, can all be considered elite options. Mark Ingram is also a strong play this week, considering how poor Tampa Bay has been against the run. Tre’Quan Smith is an interesting flier this week as the Bucs secondary is weak and he offers significant upside, but the lack of consistent targets makes him a risky play. From Tampa Bay, Jameis Winston, Mike Evan, Adam Humphries, and Chris Godwin are all in play this week. It might sound nuts, but I like Humphries and Godwin more this week than I like Evans, only because the one-on-one matchup for both of them is better. Cameron Brate can also be considered this week, but I am not too excited about him as the Saints have been stout at defending opposing tight ends. The same can be said about their run defense. It is worth noting that they expect rain in this contest, so it is something worth keeping an eye on. That said, it is not something that is taking me off this matchup for now, and I still expect plenty of fantasy goodness here.

The Steelers head to the West Coast to take on the Raiders, a game that has the second highest total on the board at 51.5 points. At this time, 65 percent of the bets are on the under. Pittsburgh has a healthy 31 point implied team total, while Oakland has a 20.5 implied team total. The Steelers are 10.5 point favorites, but the Raiders are receiving 57 percent of the bets against the spread in this one. Ben Roethlisberger tends to play much better at home, but this is a phenomenal matchup against a Raiders defense that ranks dead last in DVOA against the pass, putting Big Ben in the elite category this week. Antonio Brown and JuJu Smith-Schuster are both in phenomenal spots this week and can be considered very strong options. In DFS, I like Smith-Schuster as a potentially low-owned, high-upside play. The running back situation is interesting this week for the Steelers as James Conner will not play. Jaylen Samuels is expected to get the start in a really good matchup, but Stevan Ridley is also expected to see
some work, making this a cloudy situation. Samuels is talented and explosive, making him an enticing upside play at a very low price, but the uncertainty of the touches does make him a volatile play. Vance McDonald is also in a favorable matchup, but I have him penciled in as a secondary play on this offense. From the Raiders side, Jalen Richard and Jared Cook would be the only two I would be considering this week. I do think Cook is a strong play considering the lack of pass catchers in this offense and how generous the Steelers have been to tight ends. The Steelers defense has played solid this season at times, but they are on the road and traveling across the country which is concerning to me.

The next thing I want to focus on is the game with the lowest point total.

 

 

 

Game Open O/U Live O/U Move
Bills vs. Jets 38.5 38.5 0

 

 


The Bills and Jets game is expected to be uneventful as it has the lowest total on the slate at 38.5 points. The current betting is on the over with 68 percent of the bets being placed on the over. New York has an implied team total of 17.25 points, while Buffalo has an implied team total of 21.25 points. The Bills are favored by four points and are receiving 73 percent of the bets against the spread. This is a contest that I will not have much, if any exposure to in DFS. There is just no need when you really think about it. Josh Allen has been a great fantasy quarterback over the last two weeks and this is a favorable matchup, but he is still very volatile in my opinion and the rushing stats do not seem sustainable to me. The Bills defense is in a good spot and can be considered a strong streaming option this week. Aside from that, though, this is a stay away situation for me.

The last thing I want to cover is the game with the biggest spread.

 

 

 

 

Teams Spread
Chargers -14
Bengals 14

 

 


The Chargers host the Bengals this weekend and are the biggest favorites on the board at 14 points. Los Angeles is receiving 70 percent of the bets against the spread, so the bettors appear to think they can cover the spread. The Chargers have a 31.25 implied team total, while the Bengals have a 17.25 implied team total and this contest has a 48.5 over/under, with 59 percent of the bets on the over. Much like Vegas, I expect this to be a lopsided game, favoring the Chargers. Philip Rivers and Keenan Allen are very strong plays this week. The one concern I have is that they will not need to pass a ton because of the potential blowout. Melvin Gordon is sitting this one out, so Austin Ekeler will get another start and draws a great matchup against one of the worst run defenses in the league. Ekeler is definitely in play in all formats this week as an RB2. I am very intrigued by Justin Jackson this week and think he can be considered because if this game does get out of hand as expected, Jackson could see some extra work late in the game. Even if it stays close, the coaches have said that they want to get Jackson more involved this week, so he should still have a solid role in this content. Nothing from the Bengals side for the exception of Joe Mixon, but only in season-long formats cause of his usage. That said, I am tempering my expectations. The Chargers defense has to be considered one of the best ones on the board this weekend.

Vegas lines are very helpful and prop bets can be as well. You can see yardage totals, projected touchdowns, and all sorts of different lines that can help you project what a player is expected to do. Best of luck to all this week.


If you have any questions, you can always find me on Twitter: @Armando_Marsal