Vegas vs Fantasy Week 13 2018

By Armando Marsal

It was not until I began playing DFS that I started using Vegas lines as part of my research and a determining factor when setting up my lineups. These lines can provide so much information each week. It gives you an idea of the potential game flow we could expect. High totals and close spreads, usually indicates a potential shootout. Whereas, a low total with a low spread is a game that is not expected to have a lot of fantasy goodness aside from maybe a defense. These lines are set by math wizards and some of the best handicappers in the world. They spend countless hours studying patterns, teams, and situations. For those who are not familiar, spreads are the amount of points a team is expected to win or lose by. The point total is the amount of points both teams combined are projected to score.

My goal each week is to look through the lines (for the main slate), paint a picture as to what to expect in different situations, and how to attack that game. Let’s dive right into it.

The chart below shows the two games this week with the highest point totals. I included where it opened and the current live line. This can give you an idea of where the public is putting their money on. Generally if the total opens at one number and it begins to rise, the public is betting the over and vice versa.

Game	Open Total	Live Total	Movement
Raiders vs. Chiefs	56	55	-1
Lions vs. Rams	54.5	55	0.5

The Chiefs come off their bye and head to Oakland to take on the woeful Raiders. Aside from having the highest over/under on the slate, this game also has the largest spread. Currently 55 percent of the bets are on the under. The Raiders have an implied team total of 19.75 points, while the Chiefs have a 35.25 implied team total. Kansas City is a 15.5 point favorite in this one and they are receiving 72 percent of the bets against the spread. Some big news occurred on Friday, after the Chiefs released star running back Kareem Hunt, after a video leaked of him in an altercation with a female. This means that Spencer Ware will get the start and becomes a must play in all formats, and arguably a free square in DFS. Patrick Mahomes, Tyreek Hill, and Travis Kelce are all in great spots and can be deployed as usual. The one concern is the potential blowout, which would limit their ceiling if they do not play all four quarters. The Chiefs defense is also a great streaming play this week and a cheap DFS option. From the Raiders side, I do not have much interest, but Jared Cook and Jalen Richard can be considered this week, as they should see plenty of work in the passing game and it is a part of the defense that Kansas City struggles in. Other than that, stay away.

The Lions host the Rams in another game with an extremely high over/under. Much like the game above, this is expected to be lopsided. At this time, 61 percent of the bets are on the over. The Rams have an implied team total of 32.5 points, while the Lions have a 22.5 implied total. Los Angeles is a 10 point favorite and is receiving 79 percent of the bets against the spread. The Rams offense is one of the best ones in the league and should steam roll the Detroit defense. Jared Goff, Brandin Cooks, Robert Woods, and Todd Gurley are all firmly in play. That said, this sets up more of a Gurley game than a passing game for this offense. That said, the do not hesitate to deploy the usual suspects. Josh Reynold is also in play this week, as he has done a solid job filling in for the injured Cooper Kupp and has a solid role on this offense. If you want a GPP dart throw or are desperate at tight end, Gerald Everett can be considered, as this is a nice matchup and he has scored in his last two games. From the Lions side, Kerryon Johnson will not play and last week LeGarrette Blount erupted for a big game with Johnson sidelined. This week, however, I am not expecting another strong performance as they game script is unlikely to play in his favor. Kenny Golladay is in a good spot and my favorite Lions player this week. Theo Riddick is also in play, as he has been very involved in the passing game. Aside from those two, nothing else pops up for me from this offense.

The next thing I want to focus on is the game with the lowest point total.

Game	Open O/U	Live O/U	Move
Dolphins vs. Bills	40.5	40	-0.5

A battle of two AFC East teams this weekend is seemingly going to be unexciting based on the Vegas number. The over/under of this game is the lowest on the board at just 40 points, but 59 percent of the bets are on the over, so take that for what it is worth. Miami has a 21.75 implied team total, while Buffalo has an 18.25 implied team total. The Dolphins are favored by 3.5 points and the betting is currently 50/50 against the spread. This is a game that I do not have any targeted plays from, as both of these offenses typically do not produce much fantasy goodness. The Dolphins are extremely poor against the run, so if you are feeling frisky, LeSean McCoy is in a good spot, but he has just been awful this season. Both defenses are firmly in play, but overall this is a game I do not plan on targeting, especially with such a large slate at hand.

The last thing I want to cover is the game with the biggest spread.

Teams	Spread
Chiefs	-15.5
Raiders	15.5

Aside from having the highest over/under of the slate this game also has the largest spread. See the breakdown above for my thoughts on this game.

Vegas lines are very helpful and prop bets can be as well. You can see yardage totals, projected touchdowns, and all sorts of different lines that can help you project what a player is expected to do. Best of luck to all this week.

If you have any questions, you can always find me on Twitter: @Armando_Marsal