Vegas vs Fantasy Week 11 2018

By Armando Marsal

Vegas vs. Fantasy Week 11
By: Armando Marsal

It was not until I began playing DFS that I started using Vegas lines as part of my research and a determining factor when setting up my lineups. These lines can provide so much information each week. It gives you an idea of the potential game flow we could expect. High totals and close spreads, usually indicates a potential shootout. Whereas, a low total with a low spread is a game that is not expected to have a lot of fantasy goodness aside from maybe a defense. These lines are set by math wizards and some of the best handicappers in the world. They spend countless hours studying patterns, teams, and situations. For those who are not familiar, spreads are the amount of points a team is expected to win or lose by. The point total is the amount of points both teams combined are projected to score.

My goal each week is to look through the lines (for the main slate), paint a picture as to what to expect in different situations, and how to attack that game. Let’s dive right into it.

The chart below shows the two games this week with the highest point totals. I included where it opened and the current live line. This can give you an idea of where the public is putting their money on. Generally if the total opens at one number and it begins to rise, the public is betting the over and vice versa.

Game	Open Total	Live Total	Movement
Saints vs. Eagles	54	56	2
Giants vs. Buccaneers	52	52.5	0.5

The Saints and Eagles game is expected to be a high scoring affair, as they have the highest total on the main slate this weekend. The over/under has increased by two points since it opened and 77 percent of the bets remain on the over. New Orleans has a healthy implied team total of 31.75, while Philadelphia has a 24.25 implied team total. The Saints are 7.5 point favorites and are receiving 62 percent of the bets against the spread. This game should be filled with plenty of fantasy goodness so make sure to get players from both teams into your lineups this weekend. On the Saints side of things, Drew Brees is in a great spot against the Eagles who funnel to the pass. Brees has been playing well all season long and should be able to pick this secondary apart. Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas are also both strong plays this weekend, they should both be able to find success in this matchup. This game does not set up so well for Mark Ingram, as the Eagles are good against the run, but Ingram can still be in your
starting lineup in season-long leagues and does come at a cheap price on DraftKings, making him interesting. From the Eagles side, Carson Wentz is also in a great spot and has played really good all season. Alshon Jeffery and Zach Ertz can be considered priority plays this weekend, while Golden Tate makes for an intriguing tournament flier. Nelson Agholor can also be considered, but he is more of a secondary DFS plays for me, at best. I would have no issue rostering any of them in season-long, of course. None of the running backs for the Eagles draw my interest this week. That can also be said for the defenses.

Giants host the Bucs in what Vegas is projecting to be high scoring. The over/under of this contest has jumped half of a point since it opened and 54 percent of the bets are on the over. New York has an implied team total of 27.5 points, while Tampa Bay has a 25 implied team total. The Giants are favored by 2.5 points and are receiving 60 percent of the bets against the spread. The Giants offense is in a prime spot produce big numbers this week, as the Bucs defense has been atrocious all season long. Eli Manning should be able to put together a solid performance this week, against one of the worst secondaries in the league. Odell Beckham, Sterling Shepard, Evan Engram, and Saquon Barkley are all firmly in play and should be considered strong options this week. Barkley is my favorite one of this group, as the Bucs will be missing some key defenders in the middle. From Tampa Bay, I want to be more excited about them, but for some reason, I am not. Ryan Fitzpatrick is a fine option, as he will throw a bunch. The
pass catchers I would consider are Mike Evans, O.J. Howard, and DeSean Jackson. None of which I am prioritizing in my DFS lineups this week. Neither of these defenses are appealing to me.

The next thing I want to focus on is the game with the lowest point total.

Game	Open O/U	Live O/U	Move
Cardinals vs. Raiders	41	41	0

The Cardinals and Raiders game is expected to be a thriller. I kid, it is actually expected to be the lowest scoring game, but 52 percent of the bets are on the over, so there is some hope. Arizona has a 23.25 implied team total, while Oakland has a 17.25 implied team total. The Cardinals are 5.5 point favorites in this one and are receiving 56 percent of the bets against the spread. There are some appealing options from the Cardinals side. Josh Rosen can be considered a viable streaming option in season-long formats. The Raiders rank dead last in DVOA against the pass, making this a good matchup for him. Larry Fitzgerald is also in play this week. He has not been that productive, but the volume has been consistent over the last two games, as he has seen 10 targets in each of them. Christian Kirk can also be used this week as a flier, as he draws a favorable matchup. My favorite play, however, is David Johnson who should crush this week. With Leftwich calling the plays last week, Johnson received nine targets and was heavily involved in the pass game, which I expect to be the case moving forward. I also think the Cardinals defense is among the best defenses this week. From the Oakland side, the only player I would be considering is Jalen Richard as he sees plenty of targets out of the backfield and the Raiders are thin with pass catchers. Aside from that, I have nothing from the Oakland side,

The last thing I want to cover is the game with the biggest spread.

Teams	Spread
Chargers	-7.5
Broncos	7.5

The Chargers are 7.5 point favorites this week against the Broncos, which is the highest spread of the week (tied with Saints). Los Angeles is receiving 67 percent of the bets against the spread in this contest and have a 26.5 implied team total. The Broncos on the other hand, have a subpar 19 implied team total. The over/under in this game is 45.5 and 56 percent of the bets are on the under. This is a game where I really like Melvin Gordon in and think he is a strong play in any format. While Philip Rivers and Keenan Allen are also viable options, I am not prioritizing them in DFS. That said, don’t hesitate to roster them in your season-long leagues. On the Denver side, Phillip Lindsay and Emmanuel Sanders are in play, but I am not overly excited about neither of them. I do think the Chargers defense is a strong play this week.

Vegas lines are very helpful and prop bets can be as well. You can see yardage totals, projected touchdowns, and all sorts of different lines that can help you project what a player is expected to do. Best of luck to all this week.

If you have any questions, you can always find me on Twitter: @Armando_Marsal