TheHunterReport DFS Week 10 2016

By Dave Hunter

Things got a bit better for me in Week 9, although I still didn’t cash. This one lineup thingy is tough, mainly since I only want to spend the one $20 entry fee. This week, I’m going to change things up a bit and enter five different lineups in the DraftKings NFL $2M Mini Midseason Celebration [$100K to 1st] contest, where it’s only $4 to play. Sure, the top prize is substantially lower at $100K, although I’m cool with that. It’s about time I spread things around and give myself a better shot at cashing.

My Week 9 results weren’t horrible like Week 8, as I finished 140,796 out of 231,213 totaling 125.62 points, but there’s certainly room for improvement:

Position	Player; Team	% Draft	Fantasy Points
QB	Drew Brees, NO	16.4	27.72
RB	Mark Ingram, NO	7.4	34.1
RB	Charcandrick West, KC	49.7	10.4
WR	Odell Beckham, Jr., NYG	7.8	20.6
WR	Kelvin Benjamin, CAR	9.4	12.6
WR	Ty Montgomery, GB	30	12.1
TE	Kyle Rudolph, MIN	20.2	7.1
FLEX	Sammie Coates, PIT	4.2	0
DST	Broncos	3.1	1
Total			125.62

I knew going in that Charcandrick West would be highly owned, I just thought that he’d put up 20-plus fantasy points and be worth the roster slot. In other words, fading him wouldn’t be smart. As it turned out, fading West was extremely smart. So, there was that. And, there was Sammie Coates. Don’t you like Coates’ production? Goose eggs are always fun. I was sure Coates was going to do what Eli Rogers did. Yikes. On to Week 10, shall we?

QUARTERBACK

Top Level
Tom Brady, NE vs. Seattle Seahawks ($7,400) – The Seahawks play very well defensively on the road, so don’t think they’re just going to roll over for Tom Brady and the rest of the Patriots; however, this is Tom Brady we’re talking about here, right? I like Brady spread the ball around a bunch coming off the bye week, namely to Rob Gronkowski. You see it, don’t you?

Other choices: Aaron Rodgers, GB @ Tennessee Titans ($7,600); Matt Ryan, ATL @ Philadelphia Eagles ($7,300)

Mid-Range

Ben Roethlisberger, PIT vs. Dallas Cowboys ($6,800) – Big Ben is a different animal at home, serving up some serious fantasy point totals in Pittsburgh this season. He has the comfort of his home stadium, even facing a very tough Dallas team. Big Ben is a nice target in tournament play, mainly since I believe most fantasy DFS’ers will shy away considering the opponent.

Other choices: Carson Palmer, ARI vs. San Francisco 49ers ($6,500); Jameis Winston, TB vs. Chicago Bears ($6,300)

Value

Trevor Siemian, DEN @ New Orleans Saints ($5,600) – I’ve read the theory that New Orleans is the NFL’s version of Coors Field, where weaker offenses go to bloom. I believe it, and really like Siemian’s chances of lighting up the Saints secondary. Okay, well, maybe I shouldn’t get too revved up about Siemian this week. Still, I see 250-plus yards and 2 TD passes. Not bad for $5.6K!

Other choices: Carson Wentz, PHI vs. Atlanta Falcons ($5,400); Ryan Tannehill, MIA @ San Diego Chargers ($5,300)

Over-Value
Dak Prescott, DAL @ Pittsburgh Steelers ($6,100) – This isn’t a horrible price for Prescott but it’s a slight reach on what I want to pay for the youngster QB on the road in Pittsburgh. We’re going to see a noticeable difference in Prescott’s production compared to last week in Cleveland. There are better plays out there.

RUNNING BACK

Top Level
David Johnson, ARI vs. San Francisco 49ers ($8,400) – Johnson is the easiest – matchup-wise – and most attractive RB on the board in my book, assuming you’re okay spending way up like this. You have to expect his ownership percentage to be quite high though. I’m okay with that with the intention of building around him with excellent value-finds as Johnson will have his way with the Niners defense.

Other choices: Ezekiel Elliott, DAL @ Pittsburgh Steelers ($7,900); Melvin Gordon, SD vs. Miami Dolphins ($7,100); Devontae Booker, DEN @ New Orleans Saints ($7,000); Jay Ajayi, MIA @ San Diego Chargers ($7,000) – Yes, there seems to be plenty of top-tier talent at RB to go with in Week 10, all of whom I like in one way or another.

Mid-Range

Jordan Howard, CHI @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($6,000) – It’s tough to rely upon the Bears offense these days, although Howard is a decent gamble in Week 10 facing the Bucs weak rush defense. I like Howard in cash and tournament plays. With all the attractive top-tier options on the board this week, Howard could get overlooked. There’s one rushing TD in store for Howard, maybe more, but look for his targets as a receiver out of the backfield to increase a smidge.

Other choices: Christine Michael, SEA @ New England Patriots ($5,900)

Value
Todd Gurley, LA @ New York Jets ($5,300) – I know Gurley hasn’t lived up to expectations this season, but how can you ignore this price? Yes, even on the road in New York? Gurley and his talents are worth taking a chance on at $5.3K price, regardless of the matchup and his recent play. Gurley’s dual threat as a runner and receiver give him a bump up at this price tag in tournament play only. I’d stay away in cash lineups.

Other choices: Mark Ingram, NO vs. Denver Broncos ($5,400)

Over-Value

Le'Veon Bell, PIT vs. Dallas Cowboys ($7,700) – I’m not digging the price on Bell this week with all of the good matchups that other excellent RBs have around him at lesser prices. Give me Melvin Gordon or Devontae Booker this week over Bell. And, I’d rather pay up for Ezekiel Elliott at $7.9K than to roster Bell. It feels weird saying “stay away” from Bell in Week 10 but it’s the right thing to do.

WIDE RECEIVER

Top Level
Mike Evans, TB vs. Chicago Bears ($9,000) – Matchup – check. Targets – check. 23.2 FPPG in 2016 – check. Evans may be the highest-owned WR this week, but he’s a “go” for cash games. In fact, I find it extremely difficult to fade Evans with production expected to be out of this world and every DFS owner in the world slotting him into their lineups.
Other choices: Antonio Brown, PIT vs. Dallas Cowboys ($8,900); Jordy Nelson, GB @ Tennessee Titans ($7,500);

Mid-Range

DeAndre Hopkins, HOU @ Jacksonville Jaguars ($7,100) – Talk about disappointing. Hopkins was expected to shine this season and he’s done anything but that. Maybe it’s because defenses are focusing their attention on Hopkins? Um, yeah, that’s it. Whatever reason you believe for Hopkins and his down year, this is a good week to jump on him.

Other choices: Brandon Marshall, NYJ vs. Los Angeles Rams ($6,900); Kelvin Benjamin, CAR vs. Kansas City Chiefs ($6,800)

Value

Tyreek Hill, KC @ Carolina Panthers ($3,800) – For me it’s all about the major upside with Hill and that Jeremy Maclin is fighting injury. Hill is a perfect tournament play, considering the upside and price. The Chiefs just need to get the ball.

Other choices: Jordan Matthews, PHI vs. Atlanta Falcons ($5,900); Tavon Austin, LA @ New York Jets ($4,100); Kendall Wright, TEN vs. Green Bay Packers ($4,100)

Over-Value

Alshon Jeffery, CHI @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($6,600) – Jeffery’s inconsistencies from week-to-week make him an awful cash play, although if you’re feeling a bit nutty this week you can roster him in tournament play considering the matchup. I just shy away due to the price, although in order to hit it big in a tournament you have to take this sort of chance with players. I’m passing on Jeffery, however. Plus, there’s that whole Jay Cutler thing.

TIGHT END

Top Level
Rob Gronkowski, NE vs. Seattle Seahawks ($6,900)
Jordan Reed, WAS vs. Minnesota Vikings ($6,200)
Travis Kelce, KC @ Carolina Panthers ($5,600)

Mid-Range

Travis Kelce, KC @ Carolina Panthers ($5,600)
Jimmy Graham, SEA @ New England Patriots ($5,300)

Value

Zach Ertz, PHI vs. Atlanta Falcons ($3,700)

Good luck in Week 10! Feel free to stalk me on Twitter: @TheRolyPolyBoy