The Waiver Wire Wizard Week 11 2021

By Evan Tarracciano
Evan Tarracciano

One Tweet that I came across managed to stick with me through most of Sunday:

"Go away Week 10, you're drunk". Truer words were never spoken.

The past few days, as a whole from the Fantasy perspective, have been frustrating, confusing and difficult to navigate. It wasn't that a handful of superstars didn't live up to expectations - it was entire TEAMS. Fantasy participants who were relying on at least mediocre performances from players on the Baltimore Ravens, Atlanta Falcons, Cleveland Browns, Arizona Cardinals, Seattle Seahawks and Denver Broncos were sorely let down, with little to no production to speak of.

It isn't entirely unusual for one team to come out flat on Sunday (especially if it is following a surprise win, in the case of Cleveland, Arizona and Atlanta), but six is a jaw dropping number that hopefully will not be repeated. Losses are magnified at this point in the season, with players trying to scratch and claw their way into the playoffs in just a few weeks. Though untimely, these things happen, and it is better to make sure that if there are takeaways, we learn from them. If there is a way to improve our starting lineup, to do so. And, trust the process. Bad luck happens.
 

Quarterbacks

How many tweets have I seen recently asking "From a scale of 1-10, how concerned are you with Patrick Mahomes recent struggles?" - the answer? Plenty. I normally responded with a three or four, as I didn't anticipate that his issues and statistical decline would continue to be his new baseline. Phew! After three duds in a row, Mahomes responded with his best game of the season, completing 35-of-50 passes for 406 yards and five touchdowns against the Las Vegas Raiders Sunday night. Kansas City was able to effectively set up their run game and allow short passes to carry their offense initially, an adjustment that they had struggled with in the past. Mahomes still found Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill routinely, but also managed to get Damien Williams involved as a receiver. The Chiefs take on the Dallas Cowboys in a very entertaining matchup that I'm looking forward to in Week 11 - I'm curious to see if they stick with this new method of attack or go back to their downfield ways.

Though he only threw for 198 passing yards on the day, Mac Jones finished as a top-3 option at the position on the strength of three touchdowns against Cleveland. New England quickly jumped out to a lead in this game and imposed their will on the Browns' defense - few thought that it would be quite this lopsided. I'd still rank Jones outside of my normal "QB1" grouping each week because his volume remains low overall, but I will commend him for impressive play and outstanding accuracy. Even though the Patriots don't have top-flight receivers, Jones is able to consistently find them in space.

Cam Newton made his triumphant return as a Carolina Panther in a beatdown against the Arizona Cardinals. To say that Arizona came out "flat" in this game doesn't truly do it justice - their entire defensive unit played like zombies most of the game. Newton played limited snaps in a package that was focused around the goal line, but he made the most of his opportunities, rushing for a touchdown and throwing another to Robby Anderson. With Sam Darnold expected to miss several weeks due to injury, Newton will become the de facto top option for Carolina, and his larger-than-life persona clearly gave a jolt to the team. Post-game interviews with head coach Matt Rhule confirmed that Newton will handle the majority of starting snaps in practice moving forward. Newton is a fringe starter moving forward.

Circling back to Arizona quickly, they better pray that Kyler Murray can return in Week 11, because this offense looks LOST without him.

To answer a question that I was asked on Twitter following the conclusion of the early slate - no, I'm not remotely concerned about a bad performance from Tom Brady. Tampa Bay has multiple "get right" games against the New York Giants and Indianapolis Colts coming up, and I still have Brady as a "set it and forget it" starter.

A player that I'm beginning to pay attention to more closely is Justin Herbert, who has really cooled off since Week 6. For whatever reason, the team has phased out Mike Williams as a receiving threat, and that shift has cost them dearly. Herbert finished with just 195 passing yards and a lone touchdown, finishing in the single-digits yet again. He does have an easier road ahead, so treat him as a buy-low.

 

Running Back

News broke in the middle of last week that Nick Chubb tested positive for COVID-19, and Cleveland was hopeful that he would receive two negative tests 24 hours apart prior to Sunday. Unfortunately, that didn't happen, and to make matters worse they were also forced to place Demetric Felton in the protocol as well. D'Ernest Johnson was thrust into emergency action on Sunday, and became the long bright spot for the team in a butt-whooping against New England. Johnson rushed for 99 yards on 19 carries, chipping in seven receptions for 58 yards as a receiver. The team remains hopeful that Chubb will be cleared soon, but Johnson is a stash candidate while Kareem Hunt remains on the IR.

Perhaps the biggest injury news of the week happened in the Green Bay vs. Seattle game, with Aaron Jones leaving the game in the first half due to a knee injury. In his stead, A.J. Dillon took over, rushing for 66 yards on 21 carries and finding the end zone twice. Initial reports (thankfully) have indicated that Jones is dealing with a mild MCL injury, and he is expected to miss 1-2 weeks. In his stead, Dillon will be the top waiver-wire recommendation and addition across all Fantasy leagues. Currently rostered in less than 60 percent of formats (per ESPN), I'd be willing to drop nearly all of my remaining FAAB to acquire Dillon if I played in a shallower format. Knee injuries are notoriously fickle, and Dillion will be a low-end RB1 as a starter.

It wasn't pretty, but Antonio Gibson finished as the seventh highest scoring player at the position this week, even though he faced a very tough defense in Tampa Bay. Even with his removal from the injury report, Gibson was cast as an "emergency FLEX" option, due to his struggles since Week 5. Clearly he is healthy enough to overcome any discomfort that his shin injury causes, as Gibson was force-fed 26 total touches. Fantasy players still need to shift their mindset as it pertains to Gibson from an explosive RB1 to a volume-based RB2 moving forward, since he is fighting through pain with each step. Players who invested in him would be wise to handcuff Jaret Patterson when possible, since Patterson would step into the early-down role should Gibson falter.

D'Andre Swift played extremely well against the formidable Pittsburgh Steelers front, racking up 130 rushing yards on 33 carries in the absence of Jamaal Williams. Maddeningly enough, both Detroit rushing touchdowns came when he was off the field attempting to catch a breather. It is unknown if Williams will miss any additional time with his thigh injury, but reports did surface that he was seen with the team during warmups. Swift carries top-5 upside in his absence.

Who led the Buffalo Bills backfield in Fantasy points this past weekend, you might wonder? Was it Zack Moss? Nope. Devin Singletary? Nope. Matt Breida! With the coaching staff stating multiple times that they would make a concerted effort to get the ground game going against the New York Jets, Breida found the end zone twice - one on the ground and one through the air. His mentioning isn't an endorsement to add him to your roster, rather a reminder that this backfield remains a giant mess that is difficult to predict on a weekly basis. Moss should get the early-down and goal line work with Singletary functioning as the third-down and two-minute drill option, in theory. Yet that never happens, with Josh Allen stealing touches left and right. Avoid.

D'Onta Foreman continues to look like the most impressive back for the Tennessee Titans, and hopefully their coaching staff has begun to take notice. Foreman out-touched Adrian Peterson on Sunday 13-9, and demonstrated a nice amount of burst on a 39-yard screen pass. Peterson frustratingly continues to get work along the goal line, but Foreman has earned a much larger role in the team's weekly game script at this point. He's widely available, and one of the top waiver wire recommendations this week. As an upside stash, I'm willing to drop 10 percent of my FAAB in the hopes that he becomes the 1A for this team's rushing attack.

 

 

 

Wide Receiver

When glancing at a list of the top scoring options this week, the first several names all make sense - Stefon Diggs, CeeDee Lamb, Tyreek Hill and Justin Jefferson. All are the alpha players for their respective teams on pass-heavy offenses. Check. So who followed them this week? Kendrick Bourne, DeVonta Smith and Marcus Johnson. This (as they say) is where things started to get weird in Week 10. Sirius XM's "Sick of It" segment was ripe with receivers who had NO BUSINESS finishing atop the position. Sure, DeVonta Smith had positive regression working in his favor in a decent matchup against Denver. But few could have predicted the following:

Kendrick Bourne - 4 catches, 98 yards and a score, three carries for 43 yards.

Marcus Johnson - 5 catches, 100 yards

Jamal Agnew - He didn't even have ONE catch! Instead, Agnew rushed three times for 79 yards and a score.

Ray-Ray McCloud - No Chase Claypool? No problem! Nine catches for 63 yards on 12 targets.

Bryan Edwards - 3 catches for 88 yards and a score on four targets.

The list goes on. And. On.

Rather than taking up your valuable time discussing the players mentioned above in length, I'll make the synopsis brief.

Bourne's big day came on multiple blown coverage players. I don't anticipate that happening again, and I wouldn't advise adding or starting him.

Agnew is interesting in 14-team or larger leagues since this marks his third week in the past four with over 10 points. I'm willing to throw a few FAAB dollars his way as a bye-week FLEX.

Marcus Johnson is the most interesting, since Tennessee just placed Julio Jones on I.R. as he recovers from lingering hamstring issues. The Titans are desperate for a receiving threat not named A.J. Brown, and Ryan Tannehill publicly endorsed him after the game. Again, worthy of a five dollar FAAB bid.

Ray-Ray McCloud I want no part of if (and when) Ben Roethlisberger returns from being on the COVID-19 list. Big Ben is more prone to throwing to Diontae Johnson or Pat Freiermuth.

Bryan Edwards is intriguing following the departure of Henry Ruggs, since Las Vegas is bereft of talent outside of Darren Waller. Edwards is somehow only rostered in 15 percent of leagues. I'm willing to take a flier on him in 14-team leagues or larger and am willing to drop 5-10 percent of my FAAB to add him.

Each of the following players came drastically short of their projections in Week 10, and I'm not remotely concerned about any: A.J. Brown, D.K. Metcalf, Marquise Brown, D.J. Moore, Tyler Lockett and Amari Cooper.

 

 

 

Tight End

More and more, it appears that 2021 will be another "If you didn't draft Travis Kelce, tight end likely hosed you over for multiple weeks" scenario.

T.J. Hockenson and Mike Gesicki both finished with 0 points. Yes, 0.

Dawson Knox in his grand return for Buffalo in a game where they BLEW OUT the Jets? One catch.

Dallas Goedert was on pace to have a decent day but left with a head injury after a brutal collision with Denver safety Justin Simmons. It is believed that Goedert sustained a concussion.

Dalton Schultz played the entire game in a 43-3 drubbing over Atlanta. One catch. The return of Michael Gallup has significantly cut into his target share - Schultz drew only two targets on a day where Dak Prescott threw the ball 31 times.

Similar to wide receiver, tight end was an infuriating position to watch in Week 10. The later into the season we dive, the close it gets to a "pray for a touchdown on low volume" spot. Yes, there are glimpses of hope each week - Tyler Conklin (3/11/2) and Dan Arnold (5/67 with a two-point conversion) provided those in Week 10. If I was forced to give a tight end pickup this week, it would be Arnold, who has 37 targets over his last five games, topping over 60 receiving yards four times in that stretch. Arnold is owned in about 26 percent of standard-sized leagues, and he is a decent streaming option worth a 10 percent FAAB bid.

I expect better things from Darren Waller. Las Vegas needs to make him the focal point of their offense, plain and simple. They don't function well on offense without trying to get him involved early and often. Mark Andrews has replaced him as the second-ranked option from a consistency standpoint each week. George Kittle is back (for now), and traditionally he has been fantastic - though no one knows how long he will be on the field for. This particular crop of players was supposed to close the gap on Kelce, but it hasn't happened, and we are more than halfway through the season. Fingers crossed that Waller/Kittle regain their top form soon.