Target and Snap Analysis Week 6 2016

By Jen Ryan

As the data continues to pile up we can continue to use it to look ahead, make informed decisions, and use the numbers to help us make the best lineup decisions possible. All of our stats and resources pages are helpful but the ones I specifically use when researching for this article are listed below.

Targets: https://www.footballdiehards.com/fantasy_football_target_stats.cfm

Snaps: https://www.footballdiehards.com/nfl-snap-counts.cfm

This data is updated every Tuesday, thanks to a one Mr. Emil Kadlec. There is so much information to be derived from these tools so, as always, I am highly encouraging to spend some time in there sorting through the filters and finding statistics that can give you an edge. Here’s a look at where we are so far and what we can expect for Week 6.
- It only took five weeks but we finally have a few players in the 100 point club. David Johnson is your current PPR point leader (115), followed by DeMarco Murray (114) and Antonio Brown (109). There is a rookie who cracked the list with exactly 100 points and that is Ezekiel Elliott. The other member of the 100 club is T.Y. Hilton, with 102 PPR points. He is seeing 28% of the Colts targets and faces the Texans on the road this week, who are allowing over 16 points per game to receivers.

- Brandon Marshall’s targets have increased each week, hitting a season-high 15 targets last week for a total of 54 on the season, which puts him behind only Mike Evans and Antonio Brown. This week, Todd Bowles Jets’ will face his former mentor Bruce Arians’ Cardinals, who have allowed at least one touchdown to a receiver in but one game this season. The Jets also placed Eric Decker on IR this week.

- There is still just one player who has been on the field for 100% of his teams’ snaps and that player is still Jason Witten. It may not surprise you that Odell Beckham trails Witten with 99% of the Giants’ snaps, but it should surprise you the only other player in that category is Gary Barnidge. Barnidge has yet to score this season and his struggles could continue this week against the Bears defense that is quietly stout against tight ends. They have allowed one game of over 50 receiving yards and two total touchdowns to the position this season.

- I have preached in this series more than once about the importance of efficiency. Opportunity combined with efficiency creates points, and points are money. Here are your efficiency leaders through five weeks, reflecting players with at least 25 targets who catch at least 80% of those targets.

Check out the guy in orange!

- Naturally, there is a flipside to efficiency and that is inefficiency. Touchdowns and volume help some of these players, but here is everyone with at least 25 targets who catch half or less of those targets.

Veterans and rookies alike appear to be struggling, but is erratic quarterback play contributing to players like Fuller, Jackson, and Marshall? If Marshall and Fitzpatrick can get on the same page without the target competition from Decker, he could explode.

- There is one player in the league responsible for half of his teams’ red zone targets and that is Emmanuel Sanders, who leads all players with 13 targets from 20 yards out. Seven of those have come in the 10-zone, good for 54% of the team 10-zone share. The only players with a higher 10-zone share than Sanders are Zach Miller and Kelvin Benjamin with 57% and Kyle Rudolph with 67%. Minnesota is on the bye this week, but Zach Miller (vs. Jaguars) and Kelvin Benjamin (@ New Orleans) have matchups that could allow them to dominate in their sweet spot of the 10-zone this week.

- Using my bench mark from earlier of 25 targets, or an average of five targets per game, there are seven players who have scored on at least 10% of those targets.

o Zach Miller: 10.3%
o Kelvin Benjamin: 10.5%
o Larry Fitzgerald: 10.6%
o Michael Crabtree: 11.4%
o Jesse James: 11.5%
o Jordy Nelson: 12.5%
o Martellus Bennett: 14.3%

It is very important to recognize that three of Bennett’s four touchdowns came last week. The rest of the players have been consistent, but Jesse James could be looking over his shoulder at Ladarius Green as early as this week. James has scored in three of his past four games and will have the opportunity to fend Green off if he can hit pay dirt again this week against the Dolphins’ defense, who Delanie Walker just marched over for 76 yards and a score last week.

Each week I bring you a fraction of data you can discover by scouring over our tools. Numbers tell a story and each player has their own. It is on you to read each player’s story by interpreting their numbers. The numbers never lie and targets specifically are the base number for all other statistics. Good luck this week and feel free to reach out to me @FFdeJENerate with any target or snap questions!