Stack Em Up DraftKings Week 7 2018

If you look at most winning lineups at the end of each slate, many if not most of them will have a stack. For those who are not familiar with what stacking means, let’s define what we are calling a stack. Stacking is pairing multiple players from one team. In this instance I will be referring to a quarterback and one of his receivers, tight ends, or running backs. When you pair up a quarterback with one of his pass catchers, you are increasing upside. Generally you want to pair up a signal caller with his primary receiver, but at times, you can change that approach depending on matchups, potential game script, or any other variable that can have an impact on your decision making. Each week I’ll go over some of my favorite stacks and provide you with multiple ways to approach the stack, as well as give you my favorite option. That said, let’s jump right into it and go over my top stacks on the main slate this week.
 

Cleveland Browns

Game Over/Under: 51
Team Implied Points: 23.75
I may have been a week early on Baker Mayfield $5,800 last week against the Chargers, but this is the week that he should erupt for a monster game. The Buccaneers are arguably the worst pass defense in the league. They are yielding the most DKFP per game to opposing quarterbacks (31.8), while also giving up 1,835 passing yards (2nd most) and 16 passing touchdowns (tied for most in NFL). Mind you, this team already had a bye week, so this is just five games worth of damage. Mayfield had a bad game last week, but there is still some positive to take from his performance, as he attempted 46 passes, which was the most he has attempted all season. Since becoming the starter for Cleveland, he has attempted no fewer than 41 passes and has also topped 290 yards twice (three games). This is a perfect opportunity for Mayfield to shine, and I fully expect him to.

I get that Jarvis Landry $7,300 has not been as productive as we would like him to be, however, the good news is that the volume is still there, which means the opportunity is there. Landry is averaging 10.8 targets per game, leading the team with 28 percent of the target share, and also has nine red zone targets, which is good for 47.4 percent of the team’s red zone targets. In addition, he is top 10 in air yards this season with 660 yards. The Bucs are atrocious against the receivers. They have allowed 10 receiving touchdowns (2nd most), 85 receptions (7th most), and 1,020 yards, to go along with 52.3 DKFP per game (2nd most). His one-on-one matchup against M.J. Stewart is a good one as he ranks well below average and Landry has a 27 percent advantage rating in. This is a smash spot for Landry, who remains one of the highest targeted receivers in the league.

Since Mayfield became the starter for the Browns, David Njoku $4,200 has posted solid numbers. In the three games that Mayfield has started, Njoku has 18 receptions for 176 yards and a touchdown. During that stretch he has not scored fewer than 10 DKFP and has received 29 targets. This is a phenomenal matchup for Njoku, as the Bucs have allowed 36 receptions (4th most), 486 receiving yards (2nd most), and three receiving touchdowns (2nd most) to opposing tight ends, to go along with 21.1 DKFP per game (most in the league). Pairing him up with Mayfield only absorbs 20 percent of your salary cap, leaving you a good amount of salary to work with.

Other Options: I do not hate the idea of running some Antonio Callaway stacks, as he has been peppered with at least seven targets in three of his last four games, with no fewer than five targets in a single game during that stretch. My concern with him is his lack of efficiency, but he does offer upside and at this cheap price, he can be considered as a secondary option for tournaments. Now that Carlos Hyde is no longer with the Browns, Duke Johnson could start seeing a bigger role as a pass catcher out of the backfield, making him an intriguing pairing option if you are trying to go off the board. He has at least five targets in two of his last three games. Damion Ratley saw eight targets last week, catching six of them for 82 yards. This is a good game environment for this offense, so they can all be considered. That said, only Landry and Njoku are primary options for me.

My favorite option: Mayfield/Landry/Njoku
 

Baltimore Ravens

Game Over/Under: 50
Team Implied Points: 26.25
Joe Flacco $5,400 has cooled down since his strong start this season, scoring less than 13 DKFP in each of his last two games. With that said, this sets up as a get right spot for Flacco, as he faces off against the Saints who are giving up the third most DKFP per game to opposing quarterbacks (27.1). They are also yielding over 300 passing yards per game and have surrendered 11 passing touchdowns. The Ravens are second in the league in pass attempts per game, so they clearly have no issue letting Flacco sling it. This should be a favorable game environment for him and I expect him to take complete advantage of this situation.

John Brown $5,700 draws a very strong matchup against Ken Crawley who grades out below average on PFF, and it is a matchup that Brown has a 27 percent advantage rating in. New Orleans has actually been one of the more generous defenses to opposing wide outs, allowing the most DKFP per game, as well as 10 receiving touchdowns (2nd most) and 1,147 receiving yards (4th most). Brown leads the Ravens in air yards with 924 (3rd most in NFL) and is second with 47 targets (18 percent). He is also second on the team with five red zone targets (14.7 percent). Brown has plenty of upside and his role on this offense pretty secure, so there is no reason to think that he cannot exploit this favorable matchup.

Michael Crabtree $5,100 leads the team in targets with 55 (21 percent) and in red zone targets with six (17.6 percent). He is coming off of best game of the season, catching 6-of-9 targets for 93 yards and a score. So far, it has been a pretty quiet season for Crabtree, but he could carry the momentum over from last week’s performance into this week and once again have a productive outing. As mentioned above, this Saints defense is horrendous against wide outs. The one-on-one matchup for Crabtree is the toughest one out of the Ravens receivers, as he is set to see plenty of Marshon Lattimore, but Crabtree still has a 23 percent advantage rating according to PFF.

If you believe in narratives, then Willie Snead $4,000 is right up your alley this week. The former Saints receiver will face the team he used to play for this weekend for the first time since changing locations. As I mentioned above, this is a great matchup for this receiving corp. Snead is expected to see one-on-one coverage from P.J. Williams, who grades out well below average on PFF, and it is a matchup that he has a 36 percent advantage rating in. Snead has been peppered with 43 targets this season, averaging a healthy 7.2 targets per game, so he has a nice role on this offense. He has scored double-digit DKFP in all but one game this season. While the ceiling is not that high for him, he does offer a pretty safe floor and comes at a very affordable price.

Other Options: Nothing else is really popping out at me from this offense.

My favorite option: Flacco/Brown
 

Minnesota Vikings

Game Over/Under: 46
Team Implied Points: 24.75
Kirk Cousins $6,400 is averaging 43.3 pass attempts per game, which is the fifth most in the NFL. He has been very efficient too, averaging 320.2 passing yards per game and tossing 12 touchdowns with only three touchdowns. In addition, he has flashed nice upside, scoring over 30 DKFP twice this season. The Jets are dealing with injuries to their secondary and they were already a suspect unit. This defense has allowed 1,754 passing yards and 11 passing touchdowns, while giving up over 20 DKFP per game. Dalvin Cook will miss another game this week, so the Vikings will once again rely on Cousins’ arm. He should have a field day on Sunday.

Adam Thielen $8,600 is on another level right now. He leads the league in receiving yards (712), receptions (58), and is seventh in air yards (721). He also leads the team in targets (81) and red zone targets (9). So far this season, he has topped 100 receiving yards in every game and has scored over 27 DKFP in all but one game. This week he draws a great matchup against Parry Nickerson, who grades out well below average on PFF, a matchup that Thielen has a 42 percent advantage rating in. The Jets are yielding the sixth most DKFP per game to opposing wide outs (45.9), to go along with 1,192 receiving yards (3rd most), 95 receptions (3rd most), and seven receiving touchdowns. Eventually, I expect regression for Thielen, but I do not think it comes this week.

Stefon Diggs $7,200 has been more hit or more this season than I expected. He has either scored 21+ DKFP or fewer than 14 DKFP in each game this season. That said, there is still plenty to like about Diggs as he has been peppered with 60 targets (23 percent) and has received four red zone targets (16 percent). In addition, he is top 20 in the NFL in air yards and top 10 in targets. He is still a very talented high-volume receiver with plenty of upside and will be far less owned than Thielen is. He is expected to see coverage from Darryl Roberts, a matchup that Diggs has a 10 percent advantage rating on. I like the idea of stack all three of these players from the Vikings offense, but it will be pricey. That said, Diggs and Cousins could be a sneak stack with nice upside, as Thielen should be chalky.

Other Options – Kyle Rudolph is a secondary option for me in a Vikings stack, as both Diggs and Thielen offer far more upside. That said, Rudolph has seen at least five targets in all but one game this season. He is touchdown dependent, which is never a good thing, but Jets have yielded three touchdowns to opposing tight ends this season.

My Favorite Option: Cousins/Thielen
 

Additional Notes

The Bears and Patriots game is interesting to me. Both offenses are firmly in play, but there is also plenty of risk with each of these offenses. The Patriots are filled with talent, but they do face a pretty good Bears defense on the road. The Bears offense is in a good spot against the Patriots soft defense, but Allen Robinson is questionable and his status will ultimately be the determining factor for me in rostering someone like Mitchell Trubisky. That said, Brady and company are firmly in play, and from the Bears side, Tarik Cohen is the way to go, with or without Trubisky.

Jared Goff and his pass catchers are in a good spot against the 49ers defense that was just shredded by Green Bay. There will be no Cooper Kupp this week, but Robert Woods and Brandin Cooks are a go, and make for very strong options. Todd Gurley is also a great pairing with Goff, as his role in the passing game is significant. The only concern I have with this group is the potential blowout that could take place which would limit their upside.


Good luck to all this week. If you have any questions, you can always find me on the Twitter machine @Armando_Marsal