Jens DFS Journal 2016 week 11

By Jen Ryan

Each week, I get lost in the numbers. It all comes with the territory of analyzing fantasy football. Between pouring over data, studying matchups, and even checking out the weather, it can become difficult at times to draw that fine line between oversaturation and under-preparation. Every now and then, I like to look a little bit outside of the conventional means for inspiration. That is what I will do this week, using my good friend Bob Harris as inspiration. I haven’t missed his Three And Out column, well, ever I don’t think. You can read it right here: https://www.footballdiehards.com/fantasy-football-columns/html/DFS-Three-And-Out-2016-week-11.cfm. Each week, Bob discusses three players he is in on, and one player he is out on. Drawing off this inspiration, I am going to use Bob’s method, but in reverse. Here are three players I am out on, and one I will be all in on.

I’m Out:

QB: Tom Brady, $7,800 – New England Patriots @ San Francisco 49ers
Brady is the top priced quarterback on DraftKings this weekend, and rightfully so. He is the top signal quarter in the game on a team that rarely pumps the breaks and has no shame in running up any score. This weekend, the Patriots travel to the West Coast to claim the 49ers as their latest victim. They rank 22nd against quarterbacks and will be facing a quarterback who has scored over 30 DraftKings points in three of his past five games. This may appear as the dumbest fade ever, but hear me out. Not only do I think Brady will be the top owned quarterback this weekend but I think it could be tough for him to hit value at his cost. (For a reference at value factor, you can click on our DraftKings pricing link here:

https://www.footballdiehards.com/fantasyfootball/dailygames/Draftkings-Salary-data.cfm). My concern about his value has nothing to do with him and everything to do with the fact that this game could get out of hand very early, and a certain running back who I may mention later could see the best fantasy day on this team.

WR: Jordy Nelson, $7,800 – Green Bay Packers @ Washington Redskins
The touchdown machine that is Nelson could make me pay for this, but his price has gotten to the point where he is difficult to justify rostering, particularly this week. A casual football fan could watch Aaron Rodgers and notice that there has been a dip in his production. Nelson has largely been immune to this dip, but he will also be on the road this weekend and will see a healthy dose of Josh Norman. This is a week where it would make a ton of sense to save $1,100 and roster Davante Adams if you want Packer exposure. He has seen 35 targets and scored 3 touchdowns in his past four games. In two of those, he hit the 100 yard bonus. Nelson is as big a threat as any receiver in the league to score in any week, but I’ll be fading him for lesser-priced receivers this weekend.

TE: Delanie Walker, $5,700 – Tennessee Titans @ Indianapolis Colts
This is not to suggest Walker will have a bad day at all. In fact, I think Walker has a great chance of finishing as a top five tight end this weekend in a game that we, and by we I mean Vegas, can assume will be a shootout. The line currently sits at 53 with the Titans having an implied total of 24 points. The books expect at least three touchdowns out of this team and Walker is a good bet to grab one of them. I am looking elsewhere at tight end because there are other cheap, value plays that won’t have nearly the high ownership as Walker will. Dennis Pitta ($3,600), Julius Thomas ($3,500) and even Jesse James ($3,400) all have appeal this week, particularly Thomas. We could even go further down and take a look at Jack Doyle ($3,400) against these 24th-ranked Titans. I will be off Walker at his price and due to the fact that I anticipate having a decent amount of exposure to his teammate DeMarco Murray ($8,200) which will require me to save money and tight end seems like the right spot to bargain shop this weekend.

I’m In:

RB: LeGarrette Blount, $6,400 – New England Patriots @ San Francisco 49ers
Remember what I just said about this game probably getting out of hand? There is no better closer in the game of football than the big fella Blount, and he will stomp all over the 32nd ranked 49er run defense. Even if somehow the 49ers keep this game close, they will have a difficult time stopping this big bruiser. He leads all running backs in touchdowns with 12 and I think it is more realistic than not that he walks away with two more this weekend. He is the seventh-priced back over all, which is a bit surprising considering the three touchdown game he is coming off of, on top of the easiest running matchup the league has to offer. Blount figures to be high owned which is fine if I am going to go contrarian elsewhere, but I am not kidding when I say 100% exposure to him this weekend may not be enough for me.

Daily fantasy is a tricky puzzle and it should be or else we would all get rich off of it every single weekend. I do my best to pour over the numbers and interpret them, all while trying to build the optimum lineup the salary constraints will let me. Every now and then, I look to inspiration to help me make tough choices and Bob’s column did just that for me this weekend. This is the first time I have written up a list for myself, or for you for that matter, of players I am out on, and I suspect it won’t be the last. Good luck this weekend, and come join me in a head-to-head on DraftKings @JerseyJen22.