ESPN QB ADP Critique

It’s only early June, but it is a great time to pick apart average draft position (ADP). The ADP gives potential draftees an overhead look on when they should pull the trigger during their draft. If Player X continues to go in the early third round, then expect about the same selection range in your league.

In this segment, I will be looking at the top-20 quarterbacks for ESPN. For the most part, I think they have a good feel, but there are just some picks that are averaging out that make me scratch my head. For instance, from 13-20 it seems quite backward to me.

Down below you will is current ADP for quarterbacks at ESPN. I will be discussing those players who don’t fit very well with their ADP. My disagreement will affect your overhead look in two ways. First, it could demonstrate that a player is going to early or that a player is going to late. Second, the marketplace. You don’t want to spend too much on a player that will produce little results.

My first objection is Deshaun Watson. There is no doubting his talent. Watson did things his rookie season that is mind-boggling. He had 9.3 percent of his passes go for touchdowns. Watson also accounted for 21 touchdowns in 26 quarters and finished with four straight weeks as a top-two fantasy quarterback.

Only he and Carson Wentz had more than 6.7 percent go for scores in 2017. What may be more important is that coaches are still expecting him to run the ball (269 rushing yards on 36 carries). That won’t change. That is a huge plus in the PPR departments.

After being and looking superhuman, Watson did struggle. He threw eight interceptions and off-target on a league-worst 24.0 percent of his throws. We knew this was going to be a learning curve and Watson proved his inaccuracies continued.

He needs to improve on that or suffer. However, he still does have DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller V if he can bounce back to form after tearing his ACL. Watson has one of the highest ceilings in fantasy football.

Drew Brees as the number eight selection is about three or four higher than I’d expect. Three or four spots does not make that much of a difference with wide receivers since there is a great deal of them, but for quarterbacks, it intensifies.

His drop in ranking could be in his 2017 overall touchdown production. Brees threw for only 23 touchdowns his lowest output since 2003 when he tossed 11 in 11 games with the Chargers. He finished as the tenth quarterback in fantasy football last year. His lowest ranking since 2004 when he finished 11th. Brees also lacked his typical volume. For seven consecutive years, he finished no lower than third in the NFL in passing attempts but finished ninth last season.

When Brees did throw, he was on target 72 percent of the time. His efficiency also was demonstrated in his off-target passes (10.6 percent) was league best for the fifth time in seven seasons. Many are speculating that Brees’ age (39-years), his lack of touchdowns, and the fact that the Saints are now more of a running team will limit his production once again. I have other thoughts.

I believe that he will return to prominence and pick up his touchdown rate. Brees will be a steal in most drafts as others look elsewhere for their quarterbacking needs. Brees has been a top-five fantasy quarterback since that 2004 season, and one bad year won’t derail him.

Baker Mayfield is a lot like Drew Brees. Both have the same size, body stature, and both are very accurate. In his final season at Oklahoma, Mayfield was good on 71 percent of his passes which averaged 11.5 yards per attempt. He posted a 43-to-6 touchdown-to-interception ratio and was off-target just 8.9 percent of the time. He will have a learning curve getting used to the NFL and regrouping from the spread offense he played in as a Sooner. He also has Tyrod Taylor in front of him. Hue Jackson is in no hurry to rush their number one pick into the fold either.

The Cleveland offense is now looking strong on paper. Wide receivers Josh Gordon, Jarvis Landry, tight end David Njoku, and rookie running back Nick Chubb are raring to go. They also have brought in Carlos Hyde to have that leadership at the position. Signing Duke Johnson could also play a significant role.

Taylor will probably be the week one starter, but if things go awry, I expect he will eventually turn to Mayfield. Jackson needs a winning season to save his job, and if that means turning to Mayfield, he will do so. Mayfield is a solid dart throw at the end of your draft, not as a second quarterback.

Jared Goff had a severe turnaround from year one to year two. In his rookie season, he threw for five touchdowns and had seven picks. In 2017, he threw seven interceptions but also was good on 28 scores. His 4:1 touchdown to interception ratio wasn’t his only bright spot. Goff was much better in his completion percentage. Increasing his totals from 54.6 percent in 2016 to 62.1 last season.

The Rams added more pieces to their offense. They brought in Brandin Cooks, and Ndamukong Suh should help their defense. The Rams are also more of a running team, so Goff’s volume could suffer. I can see Los Angeles not only running the ball because of Todd Gurley but because they are also winning. With that said Goff still finished 10th in passing yards (3,804) and fifth in touchdowns.

Goff will also be facing defensive coordinators who are more prepared for his style of play. Also, he isn't the type to take off an run with the ball, killing his PPR value. Goff has rushed for a total of 67 yards on 36 attempts in 22 games.

Coach Sean McVay will make sure Goff won’t falter into non-existence category for volume; I see less of it. I feel very confident he will be a high contributor as a number two quarterback for your fantasy team.


AVERAGE DRAFT RESULTS
PLAYER INFO SNAKE DRAFT STATISTICS AUCTION DRAFT STATISTICS
RANK PLAYER, TEAM POS AVG PICK 7 DAY +/-
AVG VALUE
7 DAY +/-
%OWN
1 Aaron Rodgers, GB
QB 17.8 +0.6 29.2 +0.2 99.8
2 Tom Brady, NE
QB 22.5 -0.1 26.3 +0.2 99.7
3 Russell Wilson, Sea
QB 35.5 +0.2 15.6 -0.2 99.6
4 Deshaun Watson, Hou
QB 48.9 +0.2 12.0 +0.1 98.7
5 Carson Wentz, Phi
QB 49.3 -0.1 9.3 -0.2 99.6
6 Cam Newton, Car
QB 57.3 +0.1 6.7 +0 98.4
7 Kirk Cousins, Min
QB 65.1 +0.7 5.1 +0.1 97.2
8 Drew Brees, NO
QB 76.6 -1.9 5.0 +0.8 97.4
9 Ben Roethlisberger, Pit
QB 80.4 -0.9 2.3 +0.1 95.8
10 Andrew Luck, Ind
QB 95.4 +1.5 2.6 +0.1 92.4
11 Jimmy Garoppolo, SF
QB 101.1 -2.7 3.8 +3.8 86.9
12 Matthew Stafford, Det
QB 102.0 +0.2 1.9 +0.2 90.4
13 Baker Mayfield, Cle
QB 106.5 -4.9 0.0 +0 12.2
14 Patrick Mahomes, KC
QB 112.9 +0.5 2.1 -0.1 77.2
15 Matt Ryan, Atl
QB 116.3 -1.7 0.0 +0 70.3
16 Philip Rivers, LAC
QB 118.9 +0.3 1.4 +0 77.9
17 Dak Prescott, Dal
QB 119.2 -4.1 0.0 +0 44.9
18 Jared Goff, LAR
QB 121.7 -2.7 0.0 +0 57.7
19 Alex Smith, Wsh
QB 123.2 -1.3 0.0 +0 60.7
20 Derek Carr, Oak
QB 125.7 -1.8 0.0 +0 27.5
21 Jameis Winston, TB
QB 127.1 +0.4 0.0 +0 51.7
22 Case Keenum, Den
QB 131.2 -5 0.0 +0 16.9
23 Eli Manning, NYG
QB 131.2 -5.2 0.0 +0 10.0
24 Marcus Mariota, Ten
QB 132.0 -1.2 0.0 +0 31.3
25 Mitchell Trubisky, Chi
QB 133.1 -3.1 0.0 +0 18.1
26 Tyrod Taylor, Cle
QB 170.0 -43.4 0.0 +0 11.0
27 Lamar Jackson, Bal
QB 170.0 +0 0.0 +0 10.5
28 Blake Bortles, Jax
QB 170.0 +0 0.0 +0 10.5
29 Josh Rosen, Ari
QB 170.0 +0 0.0 +0 8.7
30 Andy Dalton, Cin
QB 170.0 +0 0.0 +0 7.0
31 Sam Darnold, NYJ
QB 170.0 +0 0.0 +0 7.0
32 Ryan Tannehill, Mia
QB 170.0 +0 0.0 +0 5.9