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DFS Three And Out 2019 week 9

By Bob Harris

Three DFS players I'm investing heavily in for tournament (GPP) play this week. ... And one I'm not.

I'm In:

Matthew Stafford, QB, Detroit Lions

It's easy to overlook Stafford. Not only in a given week, but in general. In case you missed it (and you may well have), against the Vikings in Week 7, Stafford passed by the 40,000-yard mark in his 147th game. He's the fastest to do so in NFL history. Stafford too was the fastest to reach 15,000, 20,000, 25,000 and 30,000. He's also the Lions' all-time passing leader. As NFL.com put it, "Stafford just keeps showing up, keeps starting every Sunday and producing overlooked numbers. ..." This year? He's playing as well as he ever has, with his 299 yards per game standing as his best average since 2012. His 8.4 yards per attempt, 16-to-4 TD-to-INT ratio and 105.3 QB rating are also the best of his career. This week, he'll look for a third straight 300-yard game and he'll be doing so against an Oakland defense allowing opponents to complete 71.4 percent of red-zone passes, the second-highest rate in the league. As ESPN's Al Zeidenfeld notes, Stafford has the seventh-best red-zone passer rating in the NFL, ahead of both Deshaun Watson and Patrick Mahomes. With an array of impressive downfield scoring threats, expect Stafford ($7,900 on FanDuel; $6,800 on DraftKings) to deliver in a major way this weekend.

Chris Godwin, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Last week Mike Evans got a much-needed course correction, racking up 198 yards on 11 catches (12 targets) with a pair of touchdowns against the Titans. Which means he can now go back into semi-hibernation for another month (which seems to be about the frequency we can expect big games with his previous 40-plus fantasy point outing coming against the Giants in Week 3) and Godwin can move back front and center for us. As my FootballDiehards.com colleague Kyle Dvorchak noted this week, Godwin has twice as many 100-yard games as Evans this season as well as 10-catch games. He's averaged 2.5 fantasy points per target this season compared to Evans' 2.1. Better still, ESPN's Al Zeidenfeld notes there are only two players in the league who have seen a higher percentage of their team's receptions than Godwin -- Michael Thomas and DeAndre Hopkins. Dvorchak added, "Godwin has been the more consistent player this season but he's also done more with his targets." Adding to the fun this week? A super-favorable matchup. As ESPN's Mike Clay pointed out, Godwin aligns in the slot 66 percent of the time (he has 28 catches on 37 targets for 434 yards and two touchdowns when aligned inside this season). Seattle has allowed the 12th-most fantasy points to players aligned in the slot over the past month and primary slot receivers Cooper Kupp, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Tyler Boyd, Larry Fitzgerald, Christian Kirk and Russell Gage have each reached double-digit fantasy points against them this season. Expect Godwin ($8,200 on FanDuel; $7,300 on DraftKings) to move to the head of that list this weekend.

Mark Walton, RB, Miami Dolphins

With Kenyan Drake traded to Arizona, Walton is the next man up in the Dolphins backfield. While it's not a great offense by any stretch, Walton has impressed of late and as Zeidenfeld noted, he appears to have the best volume-for-value on the slate. As FantasyPro's Mike Tagliere notes, Walton totaled 14 touches in a tough matchup against the Steelers. He’s now totaled 12, 15, and 14 touches over the last three games. Tagliere added the Jets have been struggling against the run and trading away interior lineman Leonard Williams surely won’t help. Nor will the ongoing absence of linebacker C.J. Mosley. There have been eight running backs who’ve totaled at least 12 touches against the Jets, and each of them were able to finish inside the top-36 running backs with at least 10.4 PPR points. Look, this is exactly what Zeidenfeld characterized it to be. Volume at a low price. That said, the Dolphins are getting better. I didn't say good. I said better. Granted it's a low bar, but since Ryan Fitzpatrick came off the bench in Week 5 against Washington, an offense that had scored two touchdowns all season up to that point, has scored 49 points in the nine quarters since. So yes, it's a dart toss. A super-cheap ($5,700 on FanDuel; $4,500 on DraftKings) dart toss against a team that's kind of a mess right now.

I'm Out

David Montgomery, RB, Chicago Bears

Eureka! Matt Nagy isn't an idiot -- as the coach himself told us after he forgot to run the ball in a Week 7 loss to the Saints (just 17 yards rushing on the day)! In fact, he totally committed to the run against the Chargers last Sunday and the end result was Montgomery ($6,600 on FanDuel; $5,200 on DraftKings) going off for a career-high 135 yards. Montgomery finished the game with 27 carries, five targets, 147 scrimmage yards and one touchdown. He was on the field for 73 percent of the snaps while handling that true feature-back workload we've all been hoping for. As Dr. Roto wrote for SI.com this week, the Eagles' defense has been exceptional against the run all season long (they are the fifth-best team in the NFL) and they will go all-in on stopping Montgomery and force Mitch Trubisky to beat them with his arm. Tagliere added to that by noting -- without the game against Ezekiel Elliott when they were down to just two linebackers -- the Eagles have allowed just 396 yards on 127 carries (3.12 yards per carry). Elliott is still the only running back who’s been able to tally more than 63 yards on the ground against them, which doesn’t bode well for Montgomery’s role. In other words? Don't go chasing those points kids.