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DFS Three And Out 2019 week 2

By Bob Harris
Bob Harris Three DFS players I'm investing heavily in for tournament (GPP) play this week. ... And one I'm not.

I'm In:

Josh Allen, QB, Buffalo Bills

In case you missed it last week, the Giants just gave up over 400 yards and four touchdowns to Dak Prescott and the Cowboys. Without comparing Buffalo's offense favorably to Dallas, I am pretty keen on this matchup. But it's more about Allen's ability to take advantage of favorable matchups with both his arm and his mobility. ... As ESPN's Alvin Zeidenfeld explained, the volume of carries Allen gets (he had 10 carries last week against the Jets and he averaged nine per game the final six games of 2018) gives him a high floor. Adding to that, the Giants allowed the seventh-most rushing yards to quarterbacks last year. So that's great for cash games, but the tournament appeal comes from that fantastic floor plus the upside that comes from a big arm, speedy downfield weapons and the fact that he's more than just a capable runner, he's downright dangerous where it matters most -- at the goal-line. Allen has run in five touchdowns in his past five contests. I'll be the first to concede his inaccuracy as a passer can be an issue. But there's signs he's getting better (Allen completed 64.9 percent of his passes last week) and there's no doubt he's better when he's not under pressure. This week, he should have plenty of time against the Giants front seven (according to Pro Football Focus, Prescott was the least pressured in Week 1) and there's no denying John Brown is among the most dangerous deep threats in the league. Add in a very reasonable price ($7,500 on FanDuel; $5,300 on DraftKings) and Allen works for me.

JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers

As ESPN.'s Mike Clay framed it: "What happens when a stoppable force meets a movable object? We may find out this week with a Steelers offense that struggled in New England on Sunday set to host a Seahawks secondary that was sliced up at home by Andy Dalton and the Bengals." And by "sliced up," we're talking about 418 passing yards and two touchdown passes. FantasyPro's Mike Tagliere points out the Seahawks have intercepted just three passes over their last 12 games. Seven of the last nine quarterbacks who've played them have finished as top-12 options, including Nick Mullens (twice), Cam Newton, and Dalton. ... Of course, I realize the Steelers didn't look great in New England last week. The key words there are "in New England." Stop me if you've heard this, but Ben Roethlisberger is better at home than he is on the road. Despite attempting 33 fewer passes in his eight home games last season (compared to road games), Big Ben finished with four more touchdowns in those home starts. So we have Roethlisberger at home, throwing against a struggling pass defense with Smith-Schuster likely enjoying a very favorable individual matchup. Per Clay, the third-year wideout was in the slot on 70 percent of his Week 1 routes. That role will lead to most of his work coming against fourth-round rookie Ugo Amadi, who played 19 snaps in his NFL debut. ... No, JuJu isn't cheap ($8,100 on FanDuel; $7,500 on DraftKings); but with the Steelers coming off that dismal offensive showing against the Patriots (Pittsburgh most recently scored three points in a season opener in 2001, losing 21-3 to the Jaguars), it's fair to expect lower than usual ownership despite the highly-favorable matchup.

Mecole Hardman, WR, Kansas City Chiefs

With Tyreek Hill (shoulder) set to miss four to six weeks, Hardman will be thrust into a full-time role for Kansas City. I realize Hardman wasn't targeted in Week 1, but he was on-field for 78 percent of Chiefs plays and there's some upside to being on the field that much in the NFL's most dangerous offense, led by its most dangerous downfield passer, Patrick Mahomes. So Hardman checks the "players with opportunities in great offenses" box. But Hardman isn't necessarily at the top of the target list. In fact, it's reasonable to expect Sammy Watkins, Travis Kelce and Damien Williams to all play more prominent roles. But there's something Hardman has that those guys don't: 4.33 speed in the 40. Also worth noting, Hardman spent a fair amount of time in the slot last week. According to Establish the Run's Adam Levitan, 22 of Hardman's 53 snaps against the Jaguars had him lined up inside. This week, as Tagliere notes, that would likely pit him against Raiders nickel back Lamarcus Joyner, a converted safety who ran a 4.55 at the 2014 combine. Expect Andy Reid to leverage that speed mismatch and remember, Hardman had six catches for 88 yards and two touchdowns in a narrow band of exhibition action. He's an ideal dart toss on FanDuel ($4,700), but admittedly a bit pricey DraftKings ($4,800). I wouldn't be averse to those playing on that platform looking at Washington's Terry McLaurin, who boasts great speed and downfield play-making ability for a bargain basement price on DraftKings ($3,700).

I'm Out

Aaron Rodgers, QB, Green Bay Packers

The Packers managed just 213 yards of offense -- fewer than only the Dolphins in Week 1 -- and rushed for merely 47 yards on 22 attempts for the second-lowest rushing average (2.1) against the Bears on opening weekend. Things might not be any easier even at Lambeau Field against a Minnesota Vikings team that has given Rodgers fits in recent seasons. Rodgers is just 4-4-1 in nine starts since the defensive-minded Mike Zimmer became the Vikings' coach in 2014. Rodgers missed the second meeting in 2017 and didn't make it through the first meeting that season because he broke his collarbone. But including both of those games, the Packers haven't beaten the Vikings since Week 16 of the 2016 season. Beyond that, ESPN's Matthew Berry reminded readers that Rodgers has been held below 20 points in eight of his past nine games against the Vikings and has thrown for zero or one touchdown in four of his past five healthy games against them. Throw in a price ($8,000 on FanDuel; $6,500 on DraftKings) that is fourth-most expensive on both platforms and I'm out.