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DFS Three And Out 2016 week 16

By Bob Harris

Three DFS players I'm investing heavily in for tournament (GPP) play this week. ... And one I'm not.

I'm in:

Todd Gurley, RB, Los Angeles Rams
The kids would call this "chalky AF" (older folks, feel free to visit the Urban Dictionary on the interwebs if you're having a hard time figuring that acronym out -- that's what I did). While it's true that Gurley hasn't had nearly the season the Rams anticipated -- and that began with a 17-carry, 47-yard flop in the season-opening loss to the 49ers, San Francisco has gone on to become the worst run defense in the league. They're far worse than the one that saw Gurley burn them for 133 yards and a touchdown the last time he had a home game against the 49ers. In fact, as ESPN's Mike Clay pointed out, since Week 3, the 49ers have allowed 11 top-eight fantasy weeks to opposing running back units in 12 outings. They've surrendered the most fantasy points to the position by a 60 points. Clay added: "Gurley's struggles are real and the Rams' offense has failed to score a single touchdown in four games this season, but this matchup is too good to pass up. ..." He's right. The 49ers have allowed a league-high 22 rushing touchdowns. Even if Gurley doesn't rack up big yardage totals, it's not a reach to expect him to hit pay dirt. More than once. While seven running backs will cost you more on DraftKings and six are more expensive on FanDuel, zero of them have better matchups than Gurley ($6,500 on DraftKings and $7,900 on FanDuel).

T.Y. Hilton, WR, Indianapolis Colts
Don't look now, but with two weeks remaining in the regular season, Hilton is five yards behind Julio Jones (1,253) for the NFL lead. As the team's official website suggested, Hilton might not be a prototypical No. 1 receiver in size, but he certainly is in production. To that point, Hilton has hauled in a team-high 82 receptions for 1,248 yards and six touchdowns in 14 games this season. Adding to the fun, Hilton isn’t just primarily a deep ball receiver anymore and he’s having a career year in his fifth NFL season and has done it without his No. 2 receiver (Donte Moncrief) for half of the season. Moncrief returns this week, but Hilton is the play here. We're talking about a player who leads the NFL in plays over 20 yards with 25 and ranks seventh in targets (135). He has had five games this season with at least 115 receiving yards and Raiders cornerbacks Sean Smith and T.J. Carrie aren't necessarily the guys to stop him. As FOXSports.com noted, Smith has lost a step since entering the league as a second-round pick in the 2009 NFL draft and small, speedy receivers have picked him apart on inward-cutting routes and verticals down the sideline. Hilton ($7,800 on DraftKings and $7,600 on FanDuel) will be the latest to do that in what has all the fixing to be a shootout (according to Vegas, which has set the over/under at 53). And yes, I’m almost equally enthused about Michael Crabtree ($6,100 on DraftKings and $6,200 on FanDuel) and Amari Cooper ($6,500 on DraftKings and $7,200 on FanDuel) in this one.

Chris Hogan, WR, New England Patriots
Okay. ... I've thrown out a couple of pricier options; time to do the cheap thing. And Hogan ($4,200 on DraftKings and $5,300 on FanDuel) is a cheap thing. While the very pricey Julian Edelman (and with good reason; Edelman has been targeted 67 times and has caught 37 balls for 409 yards over the last five games) and the more moderately priced Malcolm Mitchell might be the sexier picks, I think Hogan is just as viable a threat. Okay. All three are viable threats. As USA Today framed it, "The Patriots play a porous New York Jets pass defense this weekend in what should be a lopsided win." But just four weeks ago against these same Jets, Hogan hauled in four passes for 70 yards. He is more than capable of posting similar totals -- and adding a touchdown -- this time around. Only three teams have allowed more TD receptions than the Jets' 27 and they're allowing the 13th-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers this year.

I'm Out

Devonta Freeman, RB, Atlanta Falcons
A week after being held to six yards on six carries, Freeman ($7,100 on DraftKings and $7,800 on FanDuel) had the kind of performance against San Francisco I'm hoping Gurley can mimic. Freeman carried the ball 20 times for 139 yards (7.0 average) and three touchdowns. He has 12 total touchdowns heading into week 16, tied for fifth in the league. That's why you're going to have to pay up to use him this week. And I'm not sure he's going to meet value. As ESPN noted this week, the Panthers rank eighth against the run and just held Washington's Robert Kelley to eight yards on nine carries. In addition, Freeman has averaged only 3.58 yards per carry in five career games against Carolina. Yes, I realize the Falcons, currently the league's No. 1 offense, had no problem moving the ball in their first meeting with the Panthers this season as they finished with 571 yards at home in Week 4. But 503 of those yards came through the air (300 of them courtesy of Julio Jones). And it's still easier to throw against the Panthers than it is to run.