DFS Hunter Report Week 7 2018

By Dave Hunter
Dave Hunter

I did alright in Week 6 with a 174.16 DraftKings scoring lineup. Yep, I’m tooting my own horn this week since Week 5 was a total failure. I’m a GPP guy only, and most DFS owners don’t cash GPP lineups very often without submitting tons of varying lineups. I could grind and eek my bankroll up by playing cash lineups, but I’m not that sort of player. I get it, the more lineups the likelier chance of cashing. Unfortunately, I don’t have that sort of time to devote. Hopefully some of you do!

This was my best lineup of the few that I submitted:

QB – Matt Ryan (30.46)
RB – Tarik Cohen (24.1)
RB – Latavius Murray (25.8)
WR – Keenan Allen (14.3)
WR – Doug Baldwin (15.1)
WR – Julio Jones (27.3)
TE – Austin Hooper (22.1)
FLEX – T.J. Yeldon (10)
DST – Bears (5)

Total – 174.16

My goal is to hit 200 this year – it’s going to happen!

As I mention every week, I’ll be basing my weekly write-ups off DraftKings salaries, keeping in mind all suggestions are not equal and some players I like more for tournament or cash lineup builds over others.

 

QUARTERBACK

 


Top Level

Andrew Luck, IND vs. Buffalo Bills ($6,200) – The Colts have been awful on the ground, averaging only 83.2 YPG with only 1 TD all season. Yikes. If they are going to score points, it will be behind the arm of Luck. The matchup isn’t the best, at least on paper, as the Bills have been tough against QBs over the last four games played. I don’t expect that to hold up though facing Luck. I see at least 25 points on the board here, with the potential to earn over five times the $6.2K salary. I’m good with Luck in cash and tournament lineups.

Other Choices: Jared Goff, LAR @ San Francisco 49ers ($6,600)


Value

Joe Flacco, BAL vs. New Orleans Saints ($5,300) – Don’t be afraid to give Flacco a whirl in tournament lineups. The matchup is excellent, and I love the Ravens at home in a shootout of a game. The Vegas total is 49 ½ right now and I think that’s a fair expectation. You must trust that Flacco is going to find the end zone at least twice in this game if you’re going to roster him.

Other Choices: Matthew Stafford, DET @ Miami Dolphins ($5,800); Sam Darnold, NYJ vs. Minnesota Vikings ($4,900)


Over-Value

Jameis Winston, TB vs. Cleveland Browns ($6,300) – There’s no way Winston earns value in this game, with the Browns defense tighter than the Falcons were in Week 6. I know Winston has the weapons, but you can do better this week. I’ll be surprised if Winston hits a 20-point day and that’s not enough for me in GPP lineups at this price. Even if you’re going to go the cash route, don’t go crazy with Winston exposure.

Other Choices: Tom Brady, NE @ Chicago Bears ($6,100)

 

 

 

RUNNING BACK

 


Top Level

Ezekiel Elliott, DAL @ Washington Redskins ($8,100) – I’m not really thrilled with the options at the top of the RB ladder this week. Sure, I can still find room for a guy like Elliott in my lineups. The price isn’t a value at all but if you need a “for sure” thing at RB and have the salary space available as you save elsewhere, then Elliott is your man. Elliott’s price jumped up over $1K from last week, so don’t let that fact slip as you fill out your lineups. There’s solid reason to believe that Elliott will put up similar point totals to last week, and again you’re paying this salary for Elliott because you need the sure points – a cash game play for me.

Other Choices: Todd Gurley II, LAR @ San Francisco 49ers ($9,800);

Value

Duke Johnson, Jr., CLE @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($4,000) – There’s a bit of a gut feeling behind Johnson for me this week, although I really love the potential of Duke playing the Bucs. The Browns have to get the young RB more involved in the offensive game plan, especially in the passing game. Baker Mayfield is hobbling a bit with an ankle injury, so it’s a good possibility that they use Duke more in dump-off passes. There is some logic there, right? I see a wheel route and even a screen pass in store for Duke and his DFS owners. And hey, the price is right!

Other Choices: LeSean McCoy, BUF @ Indianapolis Colts ($5,600); Jordan Howard, CHI vs. New England Patriots ($5,500); Tarik Cohen, CHI vs. New England Patriots ($5,400); Alex Collins, BAL vs. New Orleans Saints ($4,800); Peyton Barber, TB vs. Cleveland Browns ($3,800)


Over-Value

Alvin Kamara, NO @ Baltimore Ravens ($8,500) – It’s hard to peg if Kamara was getting a breather by the Saints with Mark Ingram back in action in Week 6, or if the Saints just played the hot hand. I’m going to chalk it up to a usage issue for Kamara as the youngster was seeing the ball a ton while Ingram was unavailable. Saints coach Sean Payton says his running backs will see touches more evenly moving forward. Still, Kamara is too much of a risk at $8.5K in Week 7.

Other Choices: James White, NE @ Chicago Bears ($6,900)

 

 

 

 

WIDE RECEIVER

 


Top Level

Adam Thielen, MIN @ New York Jets ($8,600) – Thielen has 712 yards in six games? Say what? There isn’t a better DFS receiver in the league right now, as Thielen is averaging 28.5 PPG. I have no problem at all paying up for Thielen since he’s pretty much automatic, even though he’s not going to pay off tremendously in salary value. Who cares though if you’re not concerned about salary at WR? I’m going to start my lineups right here.

Other Choices: Mike Evans, TB vs. Cleveland Browns ($7,700); Stefon Diggs, MIN @ New York Jets ($7,200); Brandin Cooks, LAR @ San Francisco 49ers ($7,100); Robert Woods, LAR @ San Francisco 49ers ($7,000)

Value

Michael Crabtree, BAL vs. New Orleans Saints ($5,100) – Crabtree is starting to pay off for DFS owners and I expect that to continue. As I’ve discussed before, this will be a high-scoring affair. Someone will benefit from Joe Flacco’s TD passes, and I like Crabtree a tad more than John Brown, who is also playable - all the Ravens’ WR are. Crabtree is averaging a bit over 9 targets a game for the Ravens.

Other Choices: Julian Edelman, NE @ Chicago Bears ($6,600); Devin Funchess, CAR @ Philadelphia Eagles ($5,300); Marvin Jones, Jr., DET @ Miami Dolphins ($4,900); Dede Westbrook, JAC vs. Houston Texans ($4,800); Marquise Goodwin, SF vs. Los Angeles Rams ($4,600); Willie Snead, IV, BAL vs. New Orleans Saints ($4,000)

Over-Value

Jarvis Landry, CLE @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($7,300) – All of what I said last week about Landry remains. He’s an over-valued option who can’t find the end zone. Plus, he’s not doing much of anything for the Browns, so why risk this sort of dollar amount? Even if Landry goes off with a 40-point game against the woeful Bucs, I won’t feel bad about telling you to avoid him.

Other Choices: Kenny Golladay, DET @ Miami Dolphins ($6,000)

 

 

 

 

TIGHT END

 


Top Level

Zach Ertz, PHI vs. Carolina Panthers ($7,100)

Rob Gronkowski, NE @ Chicago Bears ($6,000)

Eric Ebron, IND vs. Buffalo Bills ($5,400)


Value

Trey Burton, CHI vs. New England Patriots ($4,300)

David Njoku, CLE @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($4,200)

O.J. Howard, TB vs. Cleveland Browns ($3,600)


Over-Value

George Kittle, SF vs. Los Angeles Rams ($5,000)


Good luck in Week 7! Feel free to reach out to me on Twitter: @TheRolyPolyBoy