DFS Hunter Report Week 4 2018

My Corey Clement all-in strategy wasn’t the best idea for Week 3. I guess I should’ve had at least one lineup without Clement but we all knew he was a must-lock, even with the considerable ownership attention he was going to receive from DFS owners. I only had a handful of tournament lineups this week, like usual, but I still managed 165.64 points thanks to Drew Brees, Michael Thomas and Will Fuller V.

To win the tournament big bucks, you’ll need to submit more than a handful of lineups and have every player go nut-crazy with their production. You should figure a magical 250-point threshold to get $1M buckaroos. We can do that, right? Let’s get to Week 4, shall we?

As I mention every week, I’ll be basing my weekly write-ups off DraftKings salaries, keeping in mind all suggestions are not equal and some players I like more for tournament or cash lineup builds over others.

 

QUARTERBACK

Top Level

Philip Rivers, LAC vs. San Francisco 49ers ($6,500) – There isn’t one QB that’s over $6.8K this week on DraftKings. The position in general offers quite a bit of value overall compared to other positions. There are plenty of QBs I’d roster in the $6-$6.7K range and I really think this is going to be another exciting week in the NFL, especially with the offensive boost that we’re seeing with the revised Roughing-the-Passer rule. Yikes, huh? Take Monday night for example: how many added chances did the Bucs and Steelers get due to the flag being tossed? Rivers is set up for a fantastic game at home with a now mentally-suffering 49ers club that just lost their QB in Jimmy Garoppolo. The 49ers just won’t have it in them to stop Rivers and that passing game. And, we really haven’t seen much of Keenan Allen this year aside from Week 1. Expect to see Rivers-to-Allen a bunch, assuming Allen’s injury isn’t serious.

Other Choices: Tom Brady, NE vs. Miami Dolphins ($6,700); Drew Brees, NO @ New York Giants ($6,600); Deshaun Watson, HOU @ Indianapolis Colts ($6,300)


Value

Matthew Stafford, DET @ Dallas Cowboys ($5,700) – Stafford has almost as many INTs as he does TD passes, although I like him facing the Cowboys defense this week. He’s an underrated QB in general but Stafford’s got the weapons to really succeed. His 19.7 FPPG so far isn’t fantastic, although he has outproduced Russell Wilson and Tom Brady to this point. Look for Stafford to cut down on his seasonal mistakes with the Cowboys lack of a pressure and pass rush. I like Stafford more for tournament play; however, there’s no reason why you can’t slot him in for a cash lineup or two if you’d like. Just consider the overall value at QB this week.

Other Choices: Matt Ryan, ATL vs. Cincinnati Bengals ($6,100); Russell Wilson, SEA @ Arizona Cardinals ($5,600); Andrew Luck, IND vs. Houston Texans ($5,500); Baker Mayfield, CLE @ Oakland Raiders ($5,300); Derek Carr, OAK vs. Cleveland Browns ($5,100)


Over-Value

Ryan Fitzpatrick, TB @ Chicago Bears ($6,200) – Fitzpatrick is a borderline over-value option. I mean, I’m not completely against using him this week, but there are other options I trust more. Yes, I know Fitz-Magic has thrown for over 400 yards for three consecutive games now, but that must stop, right? The Bears defense is starting to look like a dominant unit too. I see Khalil Mack getting to Fitzpatrick far too often for Fitzpatrick to have another great game.

Other Choices: None

RUNNING BACK

Top Level

Ezekiel Elliott, DAL vs. Detroit Lions ($7,700) – The matchup is solid for Elliott and he’s been very consistent week-to-week at the start of the season. I love Zeke here and think he’ll be a bit under owned as well. If the Cowboys are going to be successful against the Lions, Zeke needs to have a fantastic game. I expect it with how disappointed he was with his performance facing the Seahawks last week, taking a bunch of the blame for the Cowboys loss. We’ll see 20 or so touches for Zeke, and don’t be surprised if he finds the end zone twice. Boom.

Other Choices: Alvin Kamara, NO @ New York Giants ($9,600); Melvin Gordon, LAC vs. San Francisco 49ers ($8,300)

Value

David Johnson, ARI vs. Seattle Seahawks ($6,600) – Yes, the Cardinals are struggling. Yes, they’ll have rookie QB Josh Rosen at the helm. But come on, Johnson’s price tag is ridiculously low for the talent that we all know he has. Don’t you think the Cards game plan involves feeding the ball to DJ a ton? I do. Yes, the Seahawks defense will focus on DJ a ton. We know that; however, we can’t let the $2.2K price drop from Week 1 go unnoticed. DJ’s price point is low enough that he’s a must-start for me, especially in cash lineups.

Other Choices: Tevin Coleman, ATL vs. Cincinnati Bengals ($5,900); Carlos Hyde, CLE @ Oakland Raiders ($5,500); James White, NE vs. Miami Dolphins ($5,400); Sony Michel, NE vs. Miami Dolphins ($4,500); Tarik Cohen, CHI vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($4,100); Duke Johnson, Jr., CLE @ Oakland Raiders ($3,900)


Over-Value

Saquon Barkley, NYG vs. New Orleans Saints ($8,100) – Give me Ezekiel Elliott for a similar price tag or spend up for Melvin Gordon or even Alvin Kamara. Barkley will be a heavy part of the Giants’ offense this week as usual, so it’s not like I expect him to dud it up, although you can find a bit more production for your dollar spent in Week 4.

Other Choices: Giovani Bernard, CIN @ Atlanta Falcons ($6,300)

WIDE RECEIVER

Top Level

Keenan Allen, LAC vs. San Francisco 49ers ($8,300) – For much of the same reasons I suggest Philip Rivers this week, I say the same on Allen. He’s fighting a minor injury right now, or at least that’s the word, but I expect Allen to be ready to go and to produce big for the Chargers. I love Allen for both tournament and cash games. It should be noted that Allen’s price tag jumped $1K from last week, and this is coming off a very poor week of production. It seems darn obvious the expectations for the Chargers passing game in Week 4.

Other Choices: Michael Thomas, NO @ New York Giants ($9,100); Odell Beckham, Jr., NYG vs. New Orleans Saints ($8,700); Davante Adams, GB vs. Buffalo Bills ($7,800)

Value

Will Fuller, V, HOU vs. New York Giants ($6,800) – I wrote about Fuller last week and stated we wouldn’t see his price tag below $6K again this season, and to take advantage of his $5.9K mark, so I hope most of you did as the production was well worth the money spent. I still think Fuller is a value, even with a $900 raise in salary from last week. We’ve got Top 5 WR material on our hands in Fuller this season, but the gamble has been his ability to stay healthy which he has done since Week 2. I’m confident he’ll stay healthy this week (ha-ha), so feel free to roster Fuller in all formats – dude is going to wreck yet again. And if he doesn’t? I won’t feel bad I tossed his name your way.

Other Choices: Allen Robinson, CHI vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($5,900); Nelson Agholor, PHI @ Tennessee Titans ($5,700); Amari Cooper, OAK vs. Cleveland Browns ($5,600); Calvin Ridley, ATL vs. Cincinnati Bengals ($4,900); Tyler Boyd, CIN @ Atlanta Falcons ($4,600)

Special Choice: Quincy Enunwa, NYJ @ Jacksonville Jaguars ($4,400) – I dislike the matchup, but Enunwa will be worth rostering in tournament play based on his targets alone, averaging just under 10 a game. He’s a gamble I’m willing take at this price, even facing the Jags stout secondary.


Over-Value

Josh Gordon, NE vs. Miami Dolphins ($6,200) – As much as I like the Patriots offense this week, I’m fading Josh Gordon in all league formats. Gordon is still fighting a hamstring injury and we really don’t know how much playing time he’ll net. Why spend this sort of salary on a guess regarding playing time? Pass.

Other Choices: A.J. Green, CIN @ Atlanta Falcons ($7,500)

TIGHT END

Top Level

Rob Gronkowski, NE vs. Miami Dolphins ($7,000)


Value

Trey Burton, CHI vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($3,900)

O.J. Howard, TB @ Chicago Bears ($3,500)

Austin Hooper, ATL vs. Cincinnati Bengals ($2,900)

Over-Value

Zach Ertz, PHI @ Tennessee Titans ($6,200)


Good luck in Week 4! Feel free to reach out to me on Twitter: @TheRolyPolyBoy