DFS Gut Plays week 6 2017

By JJ Buck

If you’re reading this, you are amid a whirlwind of fantasy opinion and football statistic overload. With this article, we are looking at matchups that standout after a quick look over of the schedule and prices; going with your gut. Sometimes the obvious play is the best. Other times, it burns us. We’ll try to split the difference. Here we’ll look at Draft Kings (DK) and Yahoo Sports (YS). As always, be sure to know the scoring settings of what you are playing; DK is a PPR league as opposed to .5 PPR for Yahoo.

Quarterbacks

Kirk Cousins – Washington – (DK $6,800 – YS $31)
There’s not a ‘cheap’ quarterback play that standouts this week. Cousins has thrown five touchdown passes over his last two games and comes out of the bye-week as a comfortable home favorite against San Francisco. (WAS -10, O/U 46.5)

Philip Rivers – L.A. Chargers – (DK $6,600 – YS $28)
Back home, but is it really home for the Chargers? When you gamble on the River it can come back to burn you. Outside of his three interception performance against Kansas City, Rivers has thrown nine touchdowns and just two interceptions. He’s attempted the fifth most passes in the league and Oakland has surrendered the sixth best completion percentage to opposing quarterbacks, 68.7%. (LAC -3)

Carson Palmer (DK $6,100 – YS $27) and Jameis Winston (DK $6,200 – YS $33)
The numbers point to a shootout in Arizona, but the reality is we’ll get a 17-10 game. The only team giving up more pass yards per-game then Tampa Bay is New England. Carson Wentz dropped four touchdowns on the Arizona secondary and Winston isn’t scared to take chances. (TB -2, O/U 45)

Running Backs

Lamar Miller – Houston – (DK $5,400 – YS $25)
Miller has two touchdowns this season, one receiving and one rushing; both came in their blowout of Tennessee. He’s averaging four yards per-carry and there’s no threat to his workload. The numbers favor Cleveland’s rushing defense, but I think Miller will be leaned on this weekend and also has a chance to produce a chunk play in the passing game. (HOU -9.5, O/U 47)

Mike Gillislee – New England – (DK $5,500 – YS $18)
Blount 2.0 hasn’t found the end zone since week two. A home game against the New York Jets sets up nicely for Gillislee to break the drought. He leads the Patriots with 16 red zone carries; eight have come inside the 10-yard line. (NE -9.5, O/U 47.5)

Jarvis Allen – Baltimore – (DK $5,400 - $18)
After Terrence West left early with an injury, Allen took over the Ravens backfield leading with 21 rushing attempts and four short catches. West is doubtful this weekend and Alex Collins is getting looks, but not when it counts in the red zone. Chicago was shredded by Jerick McKinnon on Monday night. (BAL -6.5, O/U 39.5)

Quick Hits

Devonta Freeman – (DK $7,400 – YS $32) – can the TD streak continue? Five through four games, at home this weekend against the Dolphins, bet on yes. (ATL -11.5, O/U 46.5)
Melvin Gordon – (DK $7,800 – YS $25) – will be my RB1 on Yahoo this week.

Wide Receiver

Mike Evans – Tampa Bay – (DK $6,900 – YS $31)
Evans is priced as WR10 on DK this week thanks to Patrick Peterson. Cameron Brate and Evans both have six red zone targets through four games. I’ll take a couple chances with Evans hoping others shy away.

Golden Tate – Detroit – (DK $6,800 – YS $19)
Tate has been far from golden and one of the most frustrating receivers to own. The money man, Mathew Stafford, hasn’t locked onto Tate, but you have to bet on a double-digit target day against New Orleans. (DET NO -5, O/U 50)

Emmanuel Sanders (DK $6,100 – YS $16) and Demaryius Thomas (DK $6,000 – YS $15)
A blue light special on Broncos wide outs this weekend. Trevor Siemian is worth a look as a sub $6,000 QB, but with the DK main slate changes he’s an afternoon and YS target. The New York Giants are a middle of the pack pass defense and coming out of the bye the Broncos will be looking to erase that weak offensive performance against Oakland. (DEN -12, O/U 39)

DK Receptions Fillers – Adam Thielen ($6,000), Randall Cobb ($5,900)

YS Touchdown Makers – Julio Jones ($29), Michael Thomas ($25)

Tight Ends

Jordan Reed – Washington – (DK $5,000 – YS $19)
The few weeks when Reed gets a clean bill of health he’s always worth a look. With Zach Ertz going on Thursday night, you’re looking at the TE2 on Sunday.

Camron Brate – Tampa Bay – (DK $3,900 – YS $16)
Brate has found the end zone in three straight games, but the numbers that standout to me, 4-80 and 5-68. He has been able to add the yards onto the receptions.

Yahoo Cup Review

124.24 points scored Week 5; 20,420th place out of 341,553 entries.
QB –Aaron Rodgers – (24.04) – The chalk tasted good Sunday.
RB – Melvin Gordon – (31.30) – Two receiving touchdowns, 105 on the ground, feed the man.
RB – Andre Ellington – (10.80) – Needed that Duke Johnson TD boost.
WR – Randall Cobb – (4.90) – Better pick would have been corn on the Cobb.
WR – Dez Bryant – (13.70) – Needed that fantasy feast exposer.
WR – Stefon Diggs – (0.90) – Got too cute on Monday night.
TE – Austin Seferian-Jenkins – (11.90) – paid off with an end zone trip.
Flex – Antonio Brown – (20.70) – No Gatorade jug is going to slow him down.
DEF – Minnesota Vikings – (6.00) – Who would have though Jacksonville is the go to D?

Odds from VegasInsider.com