DFS Gut Plays week 11 2017

By JJ Buck

DFS Gut Plays
If you’re reading this, you are amid a whirlwind of fantasy opinion and statistic overload. With this article we are looking at matchups that standout after a quick look over of the schedule and prices; going with your gut. Sometimes the obvious play is the best and sometimes it burns us. Here we’ll look at Draft Kings (DK) and Yahoo Sports (YS). As always, be sure to know the scoring settings; DK is PPR scoring opposed to .5 PPR for Yahoo.

Quarterbacks

Matthew Stafford – Detroit – (DK $6,600 – YS $32)
Stafford has been one of the most consistent fantasy quarterbacks over the last month. The last four games he has averaged 20.25 points per-game on Yahoo and 23 PPG on Draft Kings. The Lions haven’t been able to milk games away on the ground and I expect the Bears to keep it close this weekend. That means the ball should be in the air and that bodes well for Stafford’s owners. (DET -3, O/U 41)

Kirk Cousins – Washington – (DK $6,100 – YS $32)
New Orleans is only giving up 18.3 PPG this season. If we look at their last two games, one saw a Ryan Fitzpatrick second half appearance and the other was against one of the worst offensive teams in the league, Buffalo, who is now turning to a rookie quarterback. Cousins rushed for two touchdowns last week, of course we are not expecting that, but with Washington only averaging 96.7 yards per-game on the ground it is all on his arm to give them a chance. (NO -7.5, O/U 51)

Running Backs

Melvin Gordon – L.A. Chargers – (DK $7,600 – YS $33)
Alex Ekeler hauled in two touchdown receptions last week as Gordon struggled against a stout Jacksonville defense. If people want to read too far into that let them and take advantage of what should be a monster workload day for Gordon against Buffalo. With or without Philp Rivers I like Gordon’s outlook. (LAC -4, O/U 43.5)

Jordan Howard – Chicago – (DK $6,200 – YS $27)
When Howard has rushed 20 or more times this season he has surpassed 100 yards in each of those three games. John Fox needs to feed the Hoosier’ and take the air out of the football. He’s in that awkward price range on DK where the value doesn’t feel great, but the ownership should be very small. If he gets the carries, he’ll get the points. Trusting John Fox is a rough life to live. (DET -3, O/U 41)

Chris Thompson – Washington – (DK $5,400 – YS $21)
Robert Kelley is on the I.R. and rookie Samaje Perine has been tabbed the starter this weekend. The best player is still Thompson. He will flirt with 10 carries along with a large role in the passing game against the Saints. (NO -7.5, O/U 51)

Wide Receiver

Brandon Cooks – New England – (DK $6,600 – YS $28)
Cooks only has one wow game this season, 7-131-2 vs. HOU, but provides a solid floor with that wow upside this week against Oakland in Mexico City. He’ll be easier to fit into DK lineups this weekend and a better value thanks to PPR. Outside of Brady, we play roulette with all the position players not named Rob Gronkowski hoping for the big payout. (NE -6.5, O/U 53)

Michael Crabtree – Oakland - (DK $5,900 – YS $28)
Similar to Cooks, Crabtree stands out as a solid play on DK. The Patriots defense has been good during their five game win streak which included silencing Matt Ryan and the Falcons. The Raiders will lean on the passing game to keep pace with New England. If we can get at least 80 yards and a touchdown you’ll feel good about your $5,900 play. (NE -6.5, O/U 53)

Emmanuel Sanders – New England – (DK $5,200 – YS $18)
It’s all about the price. Sanders made Malcom Butler look like he was on ice skates last week. There did not look to be any lingering ankle issues as Sanders caught six-of-11 targets for 137 yards against the Patriots. Demaryius Thomas has scored in back-to-back games ($5,800 - $20) and we know each receiver is locked into all the offense they can handle. (DEN -2.5, O/U 39)

Jamison Crowder – Washington – (DK $4,300 – YS $12)
Crowder was a hot name preseason then faded away as the Washington wide outs struggled to find any traction early on. Crowder has been targeted 24 times the last two weeks catching 15 passes for 196 yards. Looks like I will have myself one Washington stack this weekend.

DK Reception Fillers – Jarvis Landry ($6,400), Deandre Hopkins ($6,100)
YS Touchdown Makers – Mike Evans ($28), Stefon Diggs ($22)

Tight Ends

Kyle Rudolph – Minnesota – (DK $4,400 – YS $17)
The tractor beam that is the top-two main slate tight ends, Travis Kelce and Rob Gronkowski, is hard to pull away from. Rudolph has five or more receptions in their last five outings and with the Rams in town the game has the potential to be a race to 30. (MIN -2.5, O/U 46)

Jimmy Graham – Seattle – (DK $6,200 – YS $17)
His price hasn’t moved on Yahoo and it looks like Jimmy-G will be the TE play of the weekend. Graham is the focus of the passing game in the red zone and has cashed in with four touchdowns over their last three games. (SEA -3, O/U 45)

Yahoo Cup Review

86.58 points scored Week 10; 8,866th place out of 370,577 entries.
QB – Ryan Fitzpatrick – (11.38) – I told you to play Cam and I hope you did.
RB – LeSean McCoy – (7.50) – Did you hear that Buffalo is turning to a fifth round rookie QB?
RB – Christian McCaffrey – (18.50) – Only 50 total-yards, two-TD’s show’s his RZ impact.
WR – A.J. Green – (20.00) – Late add; initial lineup had Tate and Diggs in it. Stick with your gut.
WR – Adam Humphries – (2.70) – TB-NYJ ended up being about the talent, not the wishful shootout.
WR – Mohamed Sanu – (4.40) – The Yahoo pricing is still giving me fits.
TE –Austin Seferian-Jenkins – (9.70) – Would have been OK had I not stuck out at WR.
Flex – Rob Gronkowski – (9.40) – The Patriots went off, but a calm night for Gronk.
DEF – Chicago – (3.00) – Brett Hundley looked much better as GB got buy CHI.

Odds from VegasInsider.com