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Crystal Ball Week 8 2017

By Evan Tarracciano

Each of the past two weeks has been relatively sparse from a waiver-wire perspective, since little Fantasy relevant players have been thrust into starting roles worth adding. That said, as owners now enter Week 8 in the thick of bye-week madness, it is important to not sit idly. Just because little is available of relevance doesn’t suggest that owners shouldn’t take a moment to reflect upon their team and analyze strengths and weaknesses, and throw out trade offers.

Both this week and next, six teams are on bye across the league, forcing owners to fill their rosters with undesirable bench fodder that otherwise would have been reserved for emergency situations only. The departure of so many players has a tendency to “freak out” rookie owners, especially after they view the all-important “projected points” column on their site-du-jour. Opponents who would normally be squashed now have a fighting chance against stiffer competition. Chaos is in the air.

As I mentioned earlier, at this point in the season it is important to take a close look at your teams and figure out what sort of end-game is within reason. Squads that are 7-0 or 6-1 are almost assured of getting a playoff spot at this juncture, barring a catastrophic injury. Others that are 0-7 or 1-6 or 2-5 can essentially kiss this year goodbye in redraft leagues – there just aren’t enough games to close the gap with their competition. Subtracting out the best and worst-case scenarios, that leaves everyone else. Regardless if you are 5-2 or 3-4, things can shift quickly. Also, not all teams with similar records are created equal. I’ll give you an example.

In the 14 team dynasty friends and family league that I’ve referenced in the past, my team entered the year as a clear-cut favorite to make the playoffs, if not repeat as champion. However, crippling injuries (David Johnson, Danny Woodhead, Corey Coleman) coupled with players struggling (Martavis Bryant, Matthew Stafford, Kelvin Benjamin) have resulted in a 3-4 record. Yet despite all of my shortcomings, I am still third in the league in terms of points-scored. My major downfall has been opponents performing consistently above their projections, resulting in my squad leading the league in points against. Now I’m well-aware I have zero control over that statistic – it just happens to be bad luck and poor scheduling working against me. On a per-game basis, my team would typically beat out nearly everyone else. Therefore, I’m not as bad as my record would suggest, per se. Making an offer for players who have struggled over the past several weeks (such as Jordan Howard or Jay Ajayi) is still in the cards. Another
loss or two would cripple me, but a more favorable schedule and players eventually returning from injury is on my side. My long-term outlook is still solid.

There are plenty of other teams in leagues that I participate in that have better records, but more significant flaws. Those that will be unable to field a complete roster in the upcoming two weeks, because they drafted multiple players on the same bye week. Others that have been beset by a rash of injuries (in that same league, an owner had both Aaron Rodgers and Carson Palmer, for example).

Which players are worth attempting to buy low on then? Take the Green Bay Packers wide receivers, for starters. If another owner in your league who has either Jordy Nelson or Davante Adams is really worried that Brett Hundley won’t be able to get them more involved in the future (both players were extremely quiet against the New Orleans Saints last week), that is a situation worth exploring. Perhaps the bye week will give Hundley time to become more adjusted with the wideouts.

Larry Fitzgerald is another player worth inquiring about. His value will certainly take a hit with Palmer expected to miss at least 4-6 weeks with a broken left arm, and the team starting either Drew Stanton (yuck) or Blaine Gabbert. Sterling Shepard is on bye this week, but when the New York Giants return in Week 9, he will be the team’s only true talented receiver, and should be heavily saturated with targets. Corey Davis of the Tennessee Titans has been sidelined since Week 2 with a hamstring injury, but is set to return next week against the Baltimore Ravens. There are just a few examples that I can think of.

Bottom line? Remember that just because this week was thin in terms of “must-acquire” talent off of the waiver wire, it doesn’t mean that you can’t improve your team. There are plenty of leagues where upside plays like Marlon Mack, Wendell Smallwood or Josh Doctson are still available. Adding these players a week or two before their breakout game is strongly recommended. Always be active!!

Q:

Josh McCown is a top _____ the rest of 2017?

A:

McCown ranks just outside the top 12 at the position currently, and has outperformed many other quarterbacks who were selected ahead of him, such as Ben Roethlisberger, Andy Dalton and Matt Ryan. His 10 passing touchdowns tie him with Jameis Winston and Eli Manning, and just one behind Drew Brees. All of this after the New York Jets traded away their top two receivers from last season, and lost Quincy Enunwa, Devin Smith and Charone Peake for the year. The funny thing is that these statistics aren’t a total mirage – McCown has been a solid quarterback when actually given the opportunity and (more importantly) when healthy. Sure, Jermaine Kearse, Robby Anderson and Austin Seferian-Jenkins aren’t the next “Greatest Show on Turf”, but they are competent enough to sustain production from McCown. Assuming (big assumption) that McCown stays healthy the entire year, I can see him finishing just about where he currently is, around 14-15 or so. He is definitely worth a pickup during the next two weeks as a fill-in.

Q:

On Twitter and in your articles you can’t stop raving about Marlon Mack. If he was so good, why didn’t the coaching staff start him ahead of Frank Gore already?

A:

I’m not afraid to admit that I’m one of the highest writers on Mack, and for good reason – he is exceptionally talented. He is capable of both running inside and outside the tackles with his 5’11 210 lbs. frame, and has above-average hands and lightning fast speed. He still needs to improve in pass protection – a skill which wasn’t refined coming out of South Florida. As for why he hasn’t seen more snaps, it can largely be blamed upon the incompetence of the Indianapolis Colts staff, especially Chuck Pagano. Though I’ll never root for a player to be injured, with Robert Turbin now out of the picture it really opens up opportunities for Mack to take advantage of. This past week he played nearly 50 percent of the snaps, a trend which should continue. Sadly, while Frank Gore is still with the team, I can’t see Pagano ever handing over the majority of carries to Mack, but even in split duties he is still an upside FLEX play, and a must-add in dynasty and keeper formats. I wrote about it before, but he reminds me very much of David Johnson from his rookie season.

Q:

It sounds like Marshawn Lynch will be suspended in Week 8 because of his contact with an official in the altercation against the Kansas City Chiefs. Which is the better pickup in his absence, DeAndre Washington or Jalen Richard?

A:

Have a coin to flip? This is another frustrating “hot-hand” situation for owners where I don’t feel that there is a clear-cut right or wrong answer. When Lynch was out of the game last week, the workload was split right down the middle, and neither back really separated himself from the other. Washington had nine rushing attempts for 33 yards and a touchdown, with three catches for seven yards. Richard tallied nine carries for 31 yards, with four catches for 45 yards. As both backs are capable of pass protection and either can catch the ball, this will be a situation that is sure to be changing drive-by-drive. The presence of one caps the upside of the other, so unless I’m absolutely forced to pick one up due to bye-week issues, I’d avoid it. Washington would be my favorite of the two since I feel he is more explosive, but the difference is truly minimal.

Q:

Do you have ANY idea if Ezekiel Elliott will be suspended this year? If so, when, and who is the backup to grab?

A:

The short answer to this is that I’m not, nor ever claimed to be a lawyer or have any sort of a grasp on how the appeals process works. If I had to venture a guess (and that is truly all this is), I’d say that Elliott manages to play all year. As with many high-profile cases, lawyers have ways to manipulate when appeals take place, who needs to be present when they do, what evidence is brought to lights, etc. If this was really a clear-cut situation where Elliott deserved to be suspended and admitted fault, it would have happened already. The fact that several judges independently wanted to further review the case and uphold his ability to play suggests that there is something else going on here. If Elliott was to be suspended, I’d say that Alfred Morris would be the biggest beneficiary of an increase in carries and goal-line work, with Darren McFadden coming in on passing situations and when the team is in the hurry-up offense. I’ve heard arguments that the Dallas Cowboys have been “saving” McFadden in case Elliott were to be suspended, and keep him healthy. That line of thought doesn’t make too much sense in my eyes – you would think that the Cowboys would field the best roster, and not hold back talent based upon a “what if” scenario.

Q:

Will Martavis Bryant get traded? If so, to whom?

A:

I can’t see the Pittsburgh Steelers parting with Bryant, despite his obvious displeasure regarding his usage and vocal opposition to the team’s playcalling. From Bryant’s perspective, I can see why he is upset. He fought his way back from drug abuse to become a part of the team again, and he has more or less been an afterthought. Rookie JuJu Smith-Schuster has largely outperformed him, but both players are limited in touches behind Antonio Brown and Le’Veon Bell. Bryant is still very talented, but the team has him under contract, with little to no incentives to trade him away. In each of the past few weeks, we have heard that the team wants to get him more snaps and targets, but that hasn’t happened yet. I would still recommend holding onto Bryant in the off chance that he does figure things out, but would bench him until an improvement occurs.

Q:

Does Paxton Lynch replace Trevor Siemian as the starting quarterback in Denver?

A:

Not in the short term. Lynch is just finally returning to practice for the first time since the team’s third preseason game, so I would doubt that they throw him into the fire without many reps under his belt. Lynch is the more physically gifted of the two players, and his mobility would present a challenge to opposing defenses. I can’t see Siemian losing the job in Week 8, but if he continues to struggle, expect to see Lynch out there soon.

Q:

Last week I read about your Halloween costume, but I’m curious to know your favorite candy, this time of year? Big fan of candy corn?

A:

I’m not a huge sweets person, but if I had to pick a favorite growing up it would either be Peppermint Patties or Snickers. My wife really enjoys candy corn, but I think it is absolutely disgusting.

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