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crystal ball week 11 2016

By Evan Tarracciano

Since most leagues use Week 14 or 15 as the start of the playoffs, we have officially entered the “home stretch” of the Fantasy Football year. Owners who participate in redraft leagues need to finalize the back half of their roster with upside players or handcuffs, if they remain on the wire. Recent news out of Seattle and Washington has thrust multiple rookie running backs into FLEX worthy territory, and it is a certainty that more players will inherit bigger roles as injuries pile up late in the season. Which little-known options are worth adding, and what news should owners pay attention to entering Week 11? Check out the Roto Wizard’s thoughts below!

If you haven’t already joined me for my video Q and A sessions each Tuesday evening at 8 PM EST, I’d highly encourage you to do so! I’ve received a lot of positive feedback as to my thoughts and the layout – hopefully listeners are enjoying it as much as I am running it! This article serves as a supplementary piece to what I covered in this week’s chat, expanding on some of the more “hot button” topics that I received a lot of traffic on. Check out all of my prior videos and meet me for each new one here:

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Q: With the news coming out of Seattle that Christine Michael has been cut, which running back should owners target for the rest of the season? And is Michael droppable, or will he be picked up by another team?
A: Unless you participate in an incredibly deep, Michael can be safely dropped at this point. The Seahawks waived him outright with news that Thomas Rawls is expected to return in Week 11, meaning that they were clearly fed up with his lapses of judgement on the field and lack of recent production. There is a chance that he signs on with another team for the remainder of the season (the Green Bay Packers immediately come to mind), but I sincerely doubt that he will be Fantasy relevant.
Regarding the Thomas Rawls vs. C.J. Prosise discussion – nearly every report that I’ve read from sources close to the team suggests that Rawls will assume the lead-back duties this week upon his return. He may be on some sort of a snap-count the first week back, but owners should be confident that Rawls will receive at least 50 percent of the backfield snaps (if not more) moving forward. Rawls is the better play in standard formats, since the team will almost certainly use him for short-yardage work and goal-line carries. While Rawls does have the ability to catch the ball, Prosise has much better hands (after all, he’s a converted wide receiver) and offers more burst. I’m perfectly comfortable starting either (or both) every week moving forward, as they will be heavily involved in this potent Seattle offense. I don’t believe that Prosise has done enough to leapfrog ahead of Rawls, but he will still see 6-7 targets a game along with a handful of rushing attempts each week.

Q: Odds that Rob Gronkowski plays this week?
A: It certainly doesn’t sound that Gronk will play, as he is recovering from a massive blow laid down by Earl Thomas. Depending on which report you trust, Gronk either has bruised lungs, or perforated lungs. Regardless of what the actual diagnosis is, he hasn’t been cleared to fly (as the air pressure which present a further complication to the healing process), and has yet to resume practicing. I’d be looking for other options this week.

Q: Which receiver do you prefer for the rest of 2016 – T.Y. Hilton or Amari Cooper?
A: In PPR formats, Cooper currently ranks as the 7th best receiver, while Hilton is just two spots behind him at 9th. Both players have a mixed bag of easy and difficult games remaining through Week 16, and are featured options within their respective offenses. Additionally, they are only two targets apart from each other – it essentially comes down to whether or not Hilton can remain ahead of Cooper in touchdowns, while behind a few points in receptions. I’d say of the two I prefer Cooper, since he’s already ahead of Hilton even WITH bad luck in terms of getting into the end zone. I wouldn’t fault owners for siding with Hilton instead though, given how similar their statistics are though.

Q: Is Ty Montgomery droppable now that James Starks is back?
A: I discussed the Green Bay Packers offense in depth during this week’s segment on Sirius XM with Bob Harris and Mike Dempsey. Starks should see the majority of touches in the backfield, barring him coming down with a case of fumbilitis again. I’m not a huge fan of Starks, as his name could be found in the dictionary next to my definition of “uninspiring”. Should the team opt to move Montgomery back to receiver, he would be the team’s fourth option right now, at best. If you are in a 10 team format I’d say that you can part ways with Montgomery, but in deeper formats he should still be owned, in case Mike McCarthy comes to his senses and realizes that Montgomery has a higher ceiling at running back than Starks.

Q: Finish this sentence. The player that I was most wrong about this season is _________ ?
A: Man, I’ve had a few bad calls this year, but none more so than DeMarco Murray of the Tennessee Titans. I did expect him to bounce back after last year’s horrible season with the Philadelphia Eagles, but I didn’t think that he’d enter Week 11 as the number one ranked RB in PPR formats. My assumption was that the team would want to phase in Derrick Henry more, Murray would eventually break down or there would be more of a timeshare. He’s been fantastic, and his owners are certainly reaping the benefits!

Q: Your favorite Thanksgiving dish is…?
A: People are going to think I’m insane, but I could eat an entire plate of turnips and not think twice. My grandmother adds a bunch of bacon and pepper to them. I’m a fan!

Waiver-Wire choices

Quarterback:

Colin Kaepernick (San Francisco 49ers) – I’ve mentioned “Kap” in my column a number of weeks now, but his ownership continues to hover around the 15 percent mark, so I thought that I’d have one last-ditch effort to get him noticed. This isn’t to suggest that I’m the lone “expert” at the top of the mountain proclaiming him as a pickup, far from it. Sure, Kap has several drawbacks, from his lack of receiving depth to his negative media persona – I’ll grant you that. Yet, consider that he has rushed for an average of 57 yards per game over his past four starts. Having that six-point floor is roughly the same as crediting him with a touchdown, and it is all but guaranteed that he will take off running each week. He’s only had two interceptions while throwing five touchdowns over that same four game stretch, and his schedule over the next several weeks isn’t terrible. With Matt Ryan and Philip Rivers on a bye this week, there is a chance that his services could be required.

Running Back:

Robert Kelley (Washington Redskins) – Redskins coach Jay Gruden made it abundantly clear in his press conference that each week he was going to have Kelley OR Matt Jones active, and never both, citing that he wouldn’t want more than two back behind the starter who couldn’t at least contribute to special teams. This suggests that moving forward, Kelley is the teams starter, and Jones will ride the bench. While Kelley isn’t a particularly special talent – there is no one trait that I’d consider to be “elite”, he will always fall forward and average 3.5-4 YPC, and has sure hands. The Redskins schedule isn’t particularly favorable against running backs coming up (Green Bay, Dallas, Arizona, Philadelphia and Carolina through Week 15), Kelley should continue to average between 20-25 total touches, making him a low-end RB2 who is more valuable in standard formats.
C.J. Prosise (Seattle Seahawks) – See my comments above. Prosise is a solid RB2 for the remainder of the season after the team cut Christine Michael. Especially in PPR leagues, he needs to be universally owned.
Kenneth Dixon (Baltimore Ravens) – Apparently, I can’t complete an article without recommending Dixon. I won’t reinvent the wheel and reiterate everything I’ve laid-out in prior articles, so I’ll just sum it up by saying this. Dixon is the most talented back that the Ravens have, he’s getting healthier, and it is abundantly clear that they want to get him involved more both on the ground and to have as an option in the passing game. In 12 team leagues or larger, Dixon needs to be owned. He’s a FLEX play currently, with room to be a legit RB2 with upside should the Ravens opt to have him start ahead of Terrance West.

Wide Receiver:

Eli Rodgers (Pittsburgh Steelers) – Owners have been attempting to figure out which receiver not named “Antonio Brown” should be owned for the Steelers. With 10 weeks in the books now, it is safe to say that Rodgers is the only consistent option which can be trusted. Sure, you can opt to play the Darrius Heyward-Bey/Sammie Coates/Markus Wheaton roulette wheel and hope for a long touchdown, but Rodgers is the volume-based player to target here. Over the last two weeks Rodgers has 10 catches for 145 yards and a touchdown. While he doesn’t offer the same sort of ceiling as the other players listed here, his 10 point PPR floor is enough to make him worthy of a FLEX start most weeks in 12 team or larger formats.
Marquess Wilson (Chicago Bears) – In case you already weren’t aware, Alshon Jeffery was recently slapped with a four-game suspension after failing a drug test and testing positive for PEDs. Cameron Meredith is the most obvious name which will be thrown about in other waiver-wire columns, but I’m going to exclude him here since he’s owned in more than 40 percent of standard-sized leagues. Owners shouldn’t forget about Wilson, who has a good rapport with Cutler dating back to 2013. Similar to Meredith, Wilson is a bigger receiver (6’4 206 lbs.) with a tremendous catch radius. I can’t rely upon Eddie Royal staying healthy for more than a game or two at a time, and given how this offense will be playing from behind perpetually, I like Wilson’s chances of becoming Fantasy relevant sooner rather than later.

Tight End:

Will Tye (New York Giants) – The Giants finally came to their senses and put the Larry Donnell experiment to bed, vaulting Tye and rookie Jerrell Adams atop the depth chart. The past two weeks out of the team’s bye have been a good reflection of Tye’s floor – nine receptions for 86 yards. How do Tye and Adams compare to each other then, and which one is worth owning for the rest of the season? Tye will initially have more snaps and targets than Adams, but Adams is the more athletically gifted option of the two. While Adams continues to improve upon his pass-blocking, expect Tye to be a back-end TE1 in deeper formats. Owners should remember how much Eli Manning favors to throwing to tight ends up the seam.