The Good, The Bad, and the Boring: Rookie Quarterbacks Edition

By Alex McCarthy
Alex McCarthy Every fantasy football prospect has their proponents and their detractors. If you want to hear exactly how and why a given player will become the next dominant force at their position, odds are you can find an analyst to tell you. Conversely, in most cases you can find an equally credible and fervent detractor telling you why that very same player is the next Bishop Sankey or Nelson Agholor. The truth, of course, is usually more boring- most highly touted prospects don’t flame out entirely, but a relatively small number become elite at their position.

Rather than give you one side of the story, I provide all three. “The Good” focuses on the strengths of a prospect and outlines how a best-case scenario could result in fantasy football dominance. “The Bad” does just the opposite, focusing on a prospect’s flaws and outlining a worst-case scenario that could result in fantasy football mediocrity (or worse, irrelevance). “The Boring” ignores the hype and analyzes the prospect exclusively in terms of historical trends and comparisons. Finally, the “Verdict” section gives my personal take on whether I think the player in question will be Good, Bad, or Boring.

Without further ado, these are my top five quarterback prospects coming out of the 2017 draft.

Mitch Trubisky
The legacy of Mitch Trubisky got off to a dubious start when John Lynch put on a draft clinic at the Bears’ expense. The young QB better be exactly who the Chicago front offense hopes he’ll be or else a management overhaul in a few years is all but assured.

The Good

1. Has a quick delivery and crisp, fluid throwing motion that allows him to get the ball out of his hand fast when facing pressure.
2. Establishes a strong base before throws to get maximum velocity on the ball.
3. Has the arm strength and technique to make any throw, anywhere on the field.
4. Progresses through his reads well and doesn’t make things predictable for the opposing secondary.
5. Makes good decisions and doesn’t commit bad turnovers.
6. Drafted to a team that has an excellent (when healthy) offensive line and a good running game to keep defenses honest.

Owners can expect QB2 play once he locks down the starting job, with possible QB1 upside once he hits his prime.

The Bad

1. Only started thirteen games in college, so the sample size for his performance is so limited as to be potentially misleading.
2. Worked almost exclusively out of the shotgun in college, so will have to learn footwork before he can take snaps from under center.
3. Played in a college offense that didn’t often require him to make timing-based passes into tight windows, which may have inflated his accuracy statistics.
4. Is not always aware of the incoming blitz and susceptible to being blindsided.
5. Inconsistent and inaccurate when throwing the deep ball.

Owners can expect a cautionary tale that Bears fans don’t stop bitching about until Ditka unretires and leads them to another Super Bowl.

The Boring

1. Has a projected ADP between 25-48.
2. According to a previous study, QBs drafted in this range have a 17% chance to become a QB2 (top-12) and an 8% chance to become a QB1 (top-6).

Owners should not expect anything, but there is (albeit unlikely) potential for QB2 production and (albeit extremely unlikely) potential for QB1 production.

The Verdict

If it wasn’t for his millions of dollars, I would feel pretty sorry for Mitchell Trubisky. As a second overall pick that cost his team a king’s ransom, much more will be expected of him than he has to give. I see things being Bad both for him and the people who made the decision to draft him.

Patrick Mahomes
Rounding out the top ten picks of the NFL draft was Texas Tech quarterback Patrick Mahomes, who the Chiefs traded up aggressively to obtain. A savvy veteran mentor in Alex Smith and a coach with an excellent track record with QBs should help, but it remains to be seen if the edges can be sanded off of his game.

The Good

1. Has the best arm of any QB in the draft in terms of both strength and fluidity of throwing motion, and he uses it effectively both to force the ball into small windows in the intermediate game and to loft it to the deep man downfield.
2. Has good natural vision and feel for the game when searching for open receivers.
3. Is fluid and effective when forced out of the pocket and throwing on the run, and has the legs to be a dual-threat as well and make defenses pay for overcommitment.
4. Showed consistent development in accuracy during his time in college.
5. Landed in a perfect spot for a raw talent- he is not expected to step in and start right away and will be mentored by a QB whose strengths are Mahomes’ weaknesses.
6. Was personally selected by Andy Reid, who liked him enough to trade away a first round pick to move up and get him.
7. Has a love of football that can’t be questioned- he turned down over a million dollars to play baseball to play quarterback at Texas Tech instead (and have you seen Lubbock?)

Owners can expect a few years of nothing while he learns from Alex Smith, with probable QB2 (top-12) and possible QB1 (top-6) upside once he grows into the starting role.

The Bad

1. The following three points will elaborate on this, but the issues with Mahomes can be summed up in one word- RAW. Raw, raw, raw.
2. Often has questionable footwork, a weakness that has likely gone unaddressed due to his ability to throw while off-balance.
3. Can be undisciplined and is too reluctant to settle for the short gain; in college this frequently lead to him turning a broken play into a first down, but in the NFL it will more often lead to getting blindsided by an angry linebacker.
4. Will have even more to learn than most rookie QBs, having come from a wide open spread offense that in no way resembles the attack run by Kansas City.

Owners can expect yet another overdrafted QB who had high hopes and was unable to transition from the playground offense of Texas Tech to that of an NFL team.

The Boring

1. Has a projected ADP between 25-48.
2. According to a previous study, QBs drafted in this range have a 17% chance to become a QB2 (top-12) and an 8% chance to become a QB1 (top-6).

Owners should not expect anything, but there is (albeit unlikely) potential for QB2 production and (albeit extremely unlikely) potential for QB1 production.

The Verdict

One of the ways you win in dynasty is by identifying elite talent before it develops and manifests in elite production, and I think Mahomes is providing that opportunity right now. He is about as raw as they come, but he could not have landed in a better spot for a prospect with his strengths and weaknesses. If you are a patient owner who can afford to wait for him to develop, Good things are on the horizon.

DeShaun Watson
Just two picks after the Chiefs traded up for Mahomes, the Texans traded up to secure their own quarterback of the future in DeShaun Watson. The major difference being, of course, that the Super Bowl-caliber Texans are hoping that Watson can also be their quarterback of the present.

The Good

1. Is calm in the pocket and adept at using his mobility to evade sacks.
2. Has good anticipation and timing that allows him to hit receivers in motion.
3. Has excellent velocity on throws into tight windows.
4. Truly shines in the clutch, a trait that is more important at QB than at any other position.
5. Was personally selected by Bill O’Brien, who liked him enough to give up an additional first round pick to move up for him.
6. Is being handed the keys to a potent offense- the Texans are loaded with weapons for him to use, from DeAndre Hopkins to Will Fuller to Lamar Miller.

Owners can expect low-end QB2 production with high-end QB2 upside as he develops and enters his prime.

The Bad

1. Has trouble remaining consistently accurate, especially on deep throws.
2. Sometimes struggles with poor decision-making, as evidenced by a troubling seventeen interceptions in 2016.
3. Is inexperienced working from under center and could have a steep learning curve.
4. Has some trouble improvising and finding an open man when a play breaks down.
5. May be forced into a starting role almost immediately, which can stunt the growth of a young quarterback.

Owners should not expect fantasy-relevant production.

The Boring

1. Has a projected ADP between 25-48.
2. According to a previous study, QBs drafted in this range have a 17% chance to become a QB2 (top-12) and an 8% chance to become a QB1 (top-6).

Owners should not expect anything, but there is (albeit unlikely) potential for QB2 production and (albeit extremely unlikely) potential for QB1 production.

The Verdict

I go back and forth on Watson more than almost any other prospect. That said, the things he is truly great at can not be taught and the areas in which he struggles can often be improved through coaching. As long as the Texans don’t mishandle him, I think Watson is Good to go.

DeShone Kizer
With all of their trading down it didn’t seem like the Browns had any intention of selecting a quarterback, but with Kizer still sitting there at 52 they were unable to resist. The Browns are at the beginning of a slow build towards relevance (they hope), and Kizer could potentially be the centerpiece.

The Good

1. Has the arm strength and talent to make any throw on the field.
2. Has the prototypical size teams look for in a quarterback that will allow him to see over linemen and handle punishment from NFL defenders.
3. Has a quick, smooth release that delivers a tight spiral.
4. Is comfortable and mobile within the pocket and able to use his legs as a weapon, particularly in the red zone.

Owners can expect nothing for a year or two as he grows into the starting role, followed by possible QB2 upside if the Browns continue to improve along with him.

The Bad

1. Has inconsistent mechanics that can lead to off-balance throws lacking in velocity.
2. Appears to lack the clutch gene- he was given numerous opportunities to lead game-winning fourth quarter drives and failed to do so.
3. Frequently makes poor decisions based on an inability to read the field well.
4. Gets nervous under pressure and is forced into making bad throws or taking bad sacks.
5. Struggles with throwing into small, timing-based windows, particular on short passes.
6. Is generally raw and needs considerable coaching to reach his potential.
7. The Browns.

Owners can expect the Browns to ruin another quarterback, as they are wont to do.

The Boring

1. Has a projected ADP between 25-48.
2. According to a previous study, QBs drafted in this range have a 17% chance to become a QB2 (top-12) and an 8% chance to become a QB1 (top-6).

Owners should not expect anything but have unlikely potential for QB2 production and extremely unlikely potential for QB1 production.

The Verdict


As much as my gut says BAD because of the color of his jersey, the Browns organization gave me just the smallest amount of confidence after the way they handled this draft. Consequently I’m going to indict Kizer as merely Boring, because while I don’t see it as likely that he becomes fantasy-relevant, I no longer think it’s impossible, either.

Player I’m High On
Davis Webb
Selected in the third round by the Giants, Davis Webb is a developmental prospect who has been pegged as a potential replacement for aging star Eli Manning. Whether he can live up to the billing remains to be seen, but studying under Manning can only be good for his development.

The Good

1. Has excellent size and frame for an NFL quarterback.
2. Has a quick, efficient release and puts a lot of zip on the ball.
3. Is a “rhythm passer” whose touch improves as he develops a hot hand over the course of a game.
4. Is one of the better pure “arm talents” in the draft, and can make any throw on the field.
5. Was drafted by a team absolutely loaded with young weapons that will be in their primes when Manning retires- from OBJ to Sterling Shepard to Evan Engram.

Owners can expect several years of nothing as he learns from Eli Manning, followed by an out-of-nowhere explosion when he takes over the powerful Giants offense and becomes a consistent QB2.

The Bad

1. Can sometimes go cold when he is unable to get into his rhythm as a passer.
2. Has inconsistent decision-making and often forces throws into nonexistent windows in the hopes that arm strength will make up for it.
3. Footwork mechanics could use considerable work and is relatively immobile in the pocket.
4. Has inconsistent accuracy, particularly when a play breaks down and he is forced to improvise.

Owners can expect literally nothing.

The Boring

1. Does not currently have a projected ADP and will probably go undrafted.
2. I do not have any hard data on the success rate of rookies who go undrafted in dynasty, but logic would indicate that it is low if not nonexistent.

Owners can expect literally nothing.

The Verdict

The heir to a stable of weapons that includes OBJ, Sterling Shepard, and Evan Engram is not someone that I think it’s fair to ignore. While he is obviously a project and is not a player I would advocate spending much real capital on, I think that Webb is a very Good dynasty stash at his price of essentially nothing.