Target and Snap Analysis Week 8 2016

By Jen Ryan

Week 8 brings about so many things. For most leagues, trade deadlines are approaching and generally close somewhere in the next 2-4 weeks. At the conclusion of Week 8 we will also be at the halfway point of the fantasy season. The halfway point is a great spot to evaluate your teams and daily fantasy process and see what adjustments you need to make for the second half. The halfway point is also a great spot for projecting players for their rest-of-the-season pace.

Each week, numbers tell us a story. Using our Targets tool and Snaps tool, we can interpret what the numbers say.

Targets: https://www.footballdiehards.com/fantasy_football_target_stats.cfm

Snaps: https://www.footballdiehards.com/nfl-snap-counts.cfm

Here we go.
- The top five scoring leaders in PPR:
o David Johnson – 174 points
o DeMarco Murray – 147 points
o Julio Jones – 143 points
o A.J. Green – 142 points
o Melvin Gordon – 142 points

Johnson, Jones, and Green were first round draft selections this summer. Murray was drafted as the RB17 and Gordon as the RB22. The Zero RB Theory is alive and well.

- Mike Evans 75 targets are one less than 2016’s target leader T.Y. Hilton. Evans has already had his bye week. He is on pace for 200 targets this year and is the only player who accounts for over 40% of his teams’ targets (42%).

- More on Evans: he scores a touchdown on 8% of his targets, .59 fantasy points per target, has a 56% completion rate in the red zone, and a 100% completion rate in the 10-zone, where three of his six touchdowns have come this season. He gets New Orleans in the first week of the fantasy playoffs and again two weeks later for the fantasy Super Bowl in Week 16. Go break the bank on Evans before your trade deadline.

- Greg Olsen has 110 PPR points this season and is the only tight end with over 100. The closest player behind him is Martellus Bennett with 84 points. Like Evans, Olsen has also already had his bye week. Like Evans, you should go break the bank on Olsen before your trade deadline.

- There are two running backs who have been targeted on at least 20% of their teams’ targets over the past three weeks. David Johnson comes as no surprise, but the other is James White, who catches 71% of his targets and has three receiving touchdowns. It was disclosed today that, despite practicing for the first time this week, Dion Lewis still has a ways to go.

- Jimmy Graham is quietly the TE7 in PPR scoring. He has 408 yards on 27 targets this season, good for an average of over 15 yards per reception. Not only does Graham have the easiest matchup of his season this week but he will head back to the Super Dome and facing his former team for the first time since being traded to the Seattle Seahawks.

- DeAndre Hopkins is the only wide receiver to play on 99% of his teams’ snaps. He currently has 390 yards on 36 receptions and is the WR23 in football. Despite being QB-Agnostic last season, even Hopkins can’t overcome Brock Osweiler’s struggles. If there were ever a time to buy low on Hopkins, that time is now.

- Mike Evans (again) and Michael Crabtree lead all receivers with six touchdowns. I mentioned earlier that Evans scores on 8% of his targets. Crabtree scores on 10.2% of his. Of the four players behind them with five receiving touchdowns, no one scores on a higher percentage of their targets than Davante Adams (11.6%).

- There is nothing that rewards a player in fantasy football with a higher number of points than touchdowns, which is why I pay attention to touchdown scoring percentage. Of all players with at least 25 targets, there are six who score on at least 10% of their targets:

Tight ends are getting it done, none more so than Jack Doyle.

- Points per opportunity are something else I focus on with players. It is important to know how many fantasy points a receiver or tight end scores per target and a running back per touch. Here are the top five at each position, excluding players with limited opportunities who’s irrelevant numbers are skewed:

It is fair to say that players such as Perriman, Sharpe, Jennings, Carey, Kendricks, and Clay should get more looks from their team. It is also fair to imagine what players a player like Gurley could do if he were on a better team.

- The Arizona Cardinals have run 526 offensive snaps, more than any team in football. Here is the target distribution for their team:

Jaron Brown has been sent to IR, along with 8% of the teams’ targets. John Brown and Michael Floyd figure to compete for that piece of the Arizona pie, but J.J. Nelson is a dark threat to absorb them as well.

- Despite not being a factor in Aaron Rodgers historical day last week, Jordy Nelson still leads the league in 10-zone touchdowns with four. Regression is imminent, specifically this week against the Atlanta Falcons. Expect Nelson to hit the end zone, rather than expecting Adams to score multiple times.

If I can dig up these different stats using our tools, imagine what you can find. As always, I encourage you to get in there and find numbers that tell you a story, just like I do each week. Good luck this week!