Jens DFS Journal 2016 week 7

By Jen Ryan

I always say I only have two speeds. Those speeds are 0% or 100%, stop or go, all or nothing, you get the idea. I have been this way my whole life, and DFS is a part of my life therefore it is no exception. I shamelessly chase the big prize. I spend very little time on small prizes and a ton of time on the big prize, mainly the Millionaire Maker. I love the thrill associated with playing in big GPPs, and imaging all of the things I would do and where I would go if I won.

I have never won the Millionaire Maker and there is a good chance you haven’t either. I have spent a majority of my daily fantasy dollars on large tournaments and have been neglecting cash games. I am pumping the brakes this week and slowing down my speed. I am avoiding trying to find that diamond in the rough flex play that will bring me riches and working on a solid cash game lineup. I have been picking Michael Rathburn of Rotowire.com’s brain this week. Over the summer, I was lucky enough to represent Football Diehards in Jake Ceily’s Flex League draft, where I first met Michael. He’s super smart, super sharp, and super nice. After speaking with him, he has me fully back on the cash game grind.

Remember, we have links to salaries for both FanDuel and DraftKings with data going back to the beginning of the season. This is crucial for those who study salary fluctuation. Emil Kadlec has also added the “Value Factor”, which is important when evaluating salary vs. projected points and determining what score your player will need to hit value.

FanDuel: https://www.footballdiehards.com/fantasyfootball/dailygames/FanDuel-Salary-data.cfm
DraftKings: https://www.footballdiehards.com/fantasyfootball/dailygames/Draftkings-Salary-data.cfm

We also have lineup optimizer for both sites, which is an excellent tool if you are entering in volume.
FanDuel: https://www.footballdiehards.com/fantasyfootball/dailygames/lineup-generator-fanduel.cfm
DraftKings: https://www.footballdiehards.com/fantasyfootball/dailygames/lineup-generator-draftkings.cfm

Here are a few high floor players that will likely have high ownership, which is what we are looking for when we build a cash lineup. Salaries will reflect DraftKings.

QB – Andy Dalton ($6,000), Kirk Cousins ($5,900)
There are at least 13 quarterbacks priced higher than Dalton and Cousins this week and it is always nice to have a cheaper cash game quarterback to allow for paying up at the receiver and running back position. Dalton will host the 31-st ranked Browns defense at home this week and has a 2.7 value factor. Cousins will travel to Detroit to face the league’s worse passing defense in the Lions, who have surrendered a league-high 17 touchdowns on the year. His scoring value checks in at 2.5. Both quarterbacks have great matchups, great pricing, and great upside to hit value.

RB – DeMarco Murray ($7,200), Jacquizz Rodgers ($4,300), Mike Gillislee ($3,000)
Murray has been a force to reckon with this season and is a weekly cash game staple. There is little analysis required here; he has been worth his price tag each week and will have no problem running all over the 23rd-ranked Colts run defense. Rodgers and Gillislee are not automatic plays each week like Murray is, but both figure to be highly owned this week due to their opportunity. Prior to the bye week, Tampa Bay was content giving Rodgers a career-high 30 carries. Two weeks later, Doug Martin is still not healed from a hamstring injury. Rodgers will feast this week against the San Francisco 49ers, who are dead last in rush defense. Rodgers also proved a factor in the passing game, which is a bonus with DraftKings full PPR scoring. Gillislee is in the same boat with opportunity and it took a bum hammy from LeSean McCoy for this opportunity to present itself. He has a tough division game against the Miami Dolphins, but at minimum pricing he will be in my cash game lineups. I will be playing all three of these running backs this week with one in my flex under the advice of Rathburn.

WR – Julio Jones ($9,200), Odell Beckham, Jr. ($8,900), Mike Evans ($7,800)
Receiver will be the position to pay up at in cash games this weekend and most weekends. The lower costs at quarterback and the low pricing of Rodgers and Gillislee will allow for me to squeeze in two of these three players. I am normally a receiver-in-the-flex type of player, but as I just mentioned I’ll be flexing a running back this weekend so I will probably lean Jones and Evans over Beckham due to the game being in London. Jones is benefitting mightily from Matt Ryan’s stellar season. He is a target monster who leads all receivers in yardage and is more than likely to add to his total and hit the 100-yard bonus on DraftKings this weekend. Evans has similar upside, especially with Vincent Jackson heading to IR. Evans has 62 targets this season which is tied for the second-highest target total, despite already having his bye week. He is a top play this weekend and the only thing that could hinder his production would be erratic play from Jameis Winston.
>TE – Hunter Henry ($3,600), Cameron Brate ($2,900), Vernon Davis ($2,900)
Hunter exploded last week and will find himself on many cash lineups, as he is projected to be one of the higher owned tight ends this week. His opponent, the Falcons, have allowed five touchdowns to tight ends as well as an average of 11.8 fantasy points. He also has our highest value factor for tight ends this week (3.1). I will be looking more towards Brate and Davis mainly because I feel Philip Rivers could involve Antonio Gates more in the end zone this week. Brate’s matchup and opportunity similarly reflect Evans’ with the soft secondary and Jackson’s targets being up for grabs. As for Vernon Davis, tight ends have given the Detroit Lions a headache this season and no one has had difficulty scoring on them. He could be in line for a huge day.

DST – Denver ($3,800), Bengals ($3,600)
Both of these defensive units are priced in the top three. In cash games you do not want to get cute with defense and should go for the higher priced teams. If I need to save $200 elsewhere I will lean towards the Bengals simply in the sense to pick on the hapless Cleveland Browns.

I’m looking forward to getting back to cash games and slowing down a bit on chasing that big prize. Thanks again to Michael Rathburn for his knowledge this week, and feel free to come join me in a head-to-head on DraftKings where my username is JerseyJen22. Good luck this week!