2015 Quarterback Draft Prospects

By John Laub
John Laub

When analyzing college talent at the quarterback position, both the objective (data and statistics) and subjective (eye-ball test) must be considered in order to rank the players. Because of the many different offensive systems and level of talent among opponents in college football, touchdown passes and passing yards do not necessarily provide acumen into the player’s long-term NFL potential. Instead, Games Played, Passing Efficiency, Completion Percentage and Yards per Attempt provide enhanced insight in order to evaluate the signal callers. Of course, any assessment must include watching the player perform in games and on tape, and consider their measurables (height and weight). Based on the aforementioned criteria, the top-five field generals in the 2015 draft are examined below.


Benchmark College Stats for Draft Consideration

Games Played: Over 30
Passing Efficiency: 150.0
Completion Percentage: 65%
Yards per Attempt: 8.0

 
2015 Quarterback Draft Prospects

 
1. Jameis Winston, Florida State

Personnel evaluators must answer the following question: Are off-the-field issues a prelude to failure at the next level? Without a doubt, posses the physical tools, skills and intangibles to succeed in the NFL: Team leader, ultra competitor, pocket poise and downfield vision. Won Heisman Trophy while guiding undefeated Florida State to the 2013 National Championship. At 6’4” and 231 lbs., charismatic leader and prodigious playmaker, who became first freshman to lead a team to the mountaintop. Elite pocket passer who coaches yearn for at the next level. Owns a rocket arm and anticipates throws before receivers are open. Completes passes despite a muddy pocket. Can throw the ball short, intermediate and long with accuracy. Looks to throw downfield before running. More productive season as a redshirt freshman than last year: During his career, tossed 65 touchdowns for nearly 8,000 yards and rushed for seven scores. When not on the gridiron, major concerns about maturity and character: Sexual assault charge, stealing groceries and public vulgarity on campus. Neither an elusive nor dynamic runner but buys time and makes tacklers miss in the pocket. Not a quick-twitch athlete. Elongated delivery and relies on arm strength too much. Needs to improve footwork and incorporate lower body into throws. A blue-chip prospect who needs guidance (a quarterback guru) and time to develop (veteran mentor). Clearly, the preeminent franchise signal caller in the draft and likely the first player selected.

Key Career Stats

Games: 27 (26-1 career record)

Passing Efficiency: 163.3

Completion Percentage: 66.0%

Yards per Attempt: 9.4

Best Performances: vs. Auburn (2014 BCS National Championship Game), @ North Carolina State, @ Louisville, vs. Georgia Tech (2014 ACC Championship Game)

Draft Potential: Top prospect overall

 

2. Marcus Mariota, Oregon

Marcus MariotaFinest player in college football last year: Heisman winner after leading the Ducks (12-1) to the gridiron summit. Archetypal size at 6’4” and 222 lbs. Marvelous arm strength. Excellent escapability and improvisational skills. Mastered Oregon’s offense and illustrated tremendous leadership ability. Made first-rate, pre-snap reads and kept offense on pace. No character red flags and teams will not worry about the new face of its franchise. The career statistics jump off the computer screen, and multiple jaw-dropping plays left indelible Twitter comments. Three consecutive seasons tossing over 30 aerial strikes and totaling 105 during career. While passing for nearly 11,000 yards on 1,167 attempts, only intercepted 14 times. Also, accumulated 2,237 rushing yards and 29 touchdowns. Two essential NFL skills must be addressed and answered by front office staffs: Ability to anticipate throws before target is open and complete passes in very tight windows. Has not shown either talent during college tenure. Oregon’s spread offense did not require various progression reads in the passing game. After masterfully conducting the Ducks’ high-flying attack, will a smooth transition in an NFL offense ensue? Pocket footwork and vision are a concern. Needs to improve fortitude against pass rush and not rely on legs to make plays. A more athletically talented Alex Smith, who was taken first overall in 2005. One team will clearly fall in love with skill set and potential upside as an NFL starter. Likely, off the board by the tenth pick overall.

Key Career Stats

Games: 41 (36-5 career record)

Passing Efficiency: 171.8

Completion Percentage: 66.8%

Yards per Attempt: 9.3

 Best Performances: @ Washington State, @ California, @ Oregon State, vs. Florida State (Rose Bowl) 

 Draft Potential: First-round talent

 
3. Brett Hundley, UCLA

A dual-threat passer and three-year starter. In a quarterback driven league, a franchise in need of assistance at the position will covet the skills despite some apprehensions by scouts. A mobile signal caller who can play in the pocket. Thickly built at 6’3” and 226 lbs. Effortless throwing motion and potent arm permits completions all over the field. Good vision and composure. Possesses a quick release and throws the football with velocity. Slips and slides to avoid pass rushers while looking downfield. Above-average decision maker and exhibits mental aptitude: Good student with double major and willing to learn the game. Three consecutive campaigns surpassing 3,000 yards passing while completing 75 touchdowns against only 25 interceptions. Amassed over 1,700 yards rushing and scored 30 times. Cam Newton-like ball manipulation in the ground game. Needs to improve pro-style pocket passing and remain focused with traffic in face. Accuracy slips on long ball, and at times, puts too much air under deep passes. Does not stick pigskin into tight coverage and holds onto the ball too long. Should learn to slide at the end of a run, or will be exposed to big hits. Fumbled far too often last year with 11. Must complete check downs instead of holding onto ball. Talent evaluators differ on NFL potential: Some believe a first-round prospect while others rank outside the top 50 overall. Would benefit from learning the pro game on the sideline. Could really develop into a solid starting signal caller in the NFL.

Key Career Stats

Games: 40 (29-11 career record)

Passing Efficiency: 150.8

Completion Percentage: 67.4%

Yards per Attempt: 8.0

Best Performances: vs. Memphis, @ Arizona State, @ Washington, vs. USC

Draft Potential: Second-round talent

 

 
4. Garrett Grayson, Colorado State

Top senior prospect who matured and bloomed during the past two seasons. Combination of size (6’2” and 220 lbs.), mobility, intuition and accuracy indicate possible starter at the next level. Fantastic fundamentals. Makes good decisions and pushes the football down the field: Connects with targets in-stride and on-time. Fits the ball into tight spaces. Laudable quarterback instincts with underrated athletic ability. Command of the pocket and effectively uses his legs to find passing lanes and avoid rushers: Rolls out well and can throw on the run. Above average accuracy and good feel for deep throws. Owns every major passing record at school: Yardage (9,190), passing touchdowns (64) and completion percentage. Named the Mountain West Conference Player of the Year after tossing 32 aerial strikes and passing for over 4,000 yards in 2014. Comparisons to Miami QB Ryan Tannehill are not unwarranted. Needs to learn how to manipulate defensive backs. At times, stares down primary receiver. Must process reads more rapidly and look for second—and possibly third—options. Long windup and delivery: Critical to get the football out of hands faster. Would greatly benefit from watching on the sideline and learning an NFL offense under a veteran like Drew Brees. Likely a backup early during career with long-term upside.

Key Career Stats

Games: 37 (18-9 record in 2013-14)

Passing Efficiency: 145.3

Completion Percentage: 61.8%

Yards per Attempt: 8.3

Best Performances: @ Boise State, vs. Wyoming, vs. Hawaii, and @ Air Force

Draft Potential: Third-day talent

 
5. Bryce Petty, Baylor

Stupendous junior campaign in 2013. Failed to increase draft stock after a less-than spectacular senior season. Impressive statistical career with 62 passing and 21 rushing touchdowns during the past two seasons. Only started 25 games after sitting behind Heisman winner Robert Griffin III and Nick Florence. Up-tempo spread offenses have not produced many signal callers in the major leagues. System quarterback who has numerous holes in skill set required to succeed in the NFL. Spent the vast majority of college career in shotgun. Prototypical size at 6’3” and 230 lbs. Tough player with resiliency and fortitude. A rhythm thrower with a quick release; however, throws three-quarters at times and has a low-release point. Uses pump fakes to shake defenders. Zips the ball into tight spaces on timing routes. Absorbs a blow in order to make a completion downfield. Poor pocket footwork and bounces too much: Accuracy suffers as a result. Can be frustrated and mechanics disrupted with heavy pass rush. Average deep-throwing ability: Puts too much air under the pigskin. Can adjustment in play calling and reading defenses occur at the next step in career? Viewed as a long-term prospect and needs developmental time. 

Key Career Stats

Games: 25 (21-4 record in 2013-14)

Passing Efficiency: 166.0

Completion Percentage: 62.7%

Yards per Attempt: 9.7

Best Performances: @ Buffalo, vs. TCU, vs. Kansas and vs. Michigan State

Draft Potential: Third-day talent

 

2014 Pre-Draft Rankings

1. Blake Bortles, UCF

2. Teddy Bridgewater, Louisville

3. Johnny Manziel, Texas A&M

4. Derek Carr, Fresno State

5. Jimmy Garoppolo, Eastern Illinois 

 

With his Masters in history and professional experience as an educator, John Laub is uniquely qualified to research, analyze and discover new insights and trends in college and professional fantasy football. Laub has played fantasy football for a quarter century and provided FootballDiehards.com with weekly player rankings for over a decade. He won $10,000 in 1993, defeating nearly 15,000 owners, and published Audibles: Winning is Everything in the 1990s. He truly is The Gridiron Scholar. 

Twitter: @GridironSchol91 or e-mail: Audibles@aol.com