View from the Cheap Seats 8/27

by Jeff Vernetti

As September approaches and the final exhibition games are upon us, rosters and key positions are finally being ironed out. There will still be position struggles and surprising veteran releases – but one of the more intriguing positions to watch this year has been the quarterback. I have spent a lot of my time here focusing on Brett Favre and the top couple of quarterbacks, but as you watch teams choosing quarterbacks left and right as their starters, you have to wonder – where did all the talent go?

I wrote earlier this season that the quarterback and wide receiver positions were really starting to be properly valued after years and years of a running back first trend. Owners were finding out that a high quality quarterback (like Tom Brady or Peyton Manning) or a wide receiver (like Randy Moss or Reggie Wayne) were often times better for you than the tenth best running back.

It is bizarre that so many NFL teams have mediocre or below average starting quarterbacks. That is even more of a reason not to wait too long to draft a quarterback if you get any points for passing yards and touchdowns. Get a good quarterback early instead of waiting for mediocre quarterbacks later.

There are six top tier quarterbacks – Brady, Manning, Tony Romo, Drew Brees, Carson Palmer and Ben Roethlisberger. Another five are very good, but a tier below – Donovan McNabb, Derek Anderson, Matt Hasselbeck, Eli Manning, and Jay Cutler. Then there are a lot of questions (see Jake Delhomme and Marc Bulger) potential (Jon Kitna and Philip Rivers) and problems (see Vince Young and Aaron Rodgers).

The depth is startling bad. Can you as a fantasy owner trust in Tarvaris Jackson, who has raw athletic ability but appears to be on a small leash on a team on the doorstep of the playoffs in Minnesota? Is a quarterback battle between Rex Grossman and Kyle Orton even worth our fantasy attention? The Vikings and the Bears don’t even like these choices – why should you?

Good starting quarterbacks in the NFL also don’t necessarily equal a productive fantasy quarterback. Jeff Garcia got the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to the playoffs but threw for only 2,440 yards and 13 TD in 13 games. Not good for a fantasy owner, even as a reserve.

A couple of starting jobs have just been handed out – let’s take a look to see if they have any fantasy value.

J.T. O’Sullivan, San Francisco – O’Sullivan came to the 49ers from the Lions with new offensive coordinator Mike Martz. The old coach loves to throw the ball and sees a lot of potential in the first time starter. Alex Smith and his big contract go to the bench and into fantasy never never land. O’Sullivan is a project and should not be considered to be on your team until you see how he handles the head job. He could have the production of Jon Kitna or he might not be able to handle the Mike Martz pressure.

Matt Ryan, Atlanta – The Falcons top pick won the job, beating out Chris Redman and (laugh out loud) Joey Harrington. Ryan has all the tools and will be a good fantasy quarterback – but not yet. They only have one weapon (Roddy White) and a terrible offensive line. Bench selection at most.

Chad Pennington, Miami – HAAAAAAA!!! Not on your life unless you like rag arm quarterbacks who can manage the offense. Avoid at all costs. It hurt to even write his name. (You can tell I don’t like him can’t you.)

Kurt Warner, Arizona – Warner has beaten out the beer bonging Matt Leinart and has truly earned it. Warner had to battle back to win the job over Leinart, after throwing for over 3,000 yards in 14 games last season. Grab Warner and start him depending on matchups for sure. Warner and the Cards will be gunning and if he can stay vertical you will love the production. Warner threw for 2,362 yards and 21 TD in the last eight games of the season last year, better than even Tom Brady.

Warner, assuming that he has won the job, is a real fantasy sleeper. Does he have magic in that arm for one more year – time will tell. But as I always say, trust in Kurt!

I’ll catch you next time. Email me questions or comments at vern@footballdiehards.com Make sure you check out our weekly podcasts for all the latest football news. Until next week, this has been my “View from the Cheap Seats.”