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Risers and Fallers: Week 13 
By David Cherney
Hey fantasy football-ers, welcome to the weekly risers and fallers column. This is my first week doing this piece, so let me explain why you should care. The column highlights a few players at the RB, WR, and TE positions that are trending upwards or downwards going into the next few weeks of action. Predicted trends are largely based on usage and targets – using FootballDiehards’ target and target zone data tool. In the piece, you’ll find players both on your waiver wire and on active rosters. My goal is to give you a competitive edge on your fantasy rivals who may not watch these trends as closely as you. RISING Running Backs Isaiah Crowell, RB, Browns Crowell was a name to watch going into this week’s action, after the Browns listed him as the number one back on their depth chart. And, while QB Brian Hoyer did all he could to hand the Falcons a win, Crowell went into beast mode. He ran over the Falcons’ front seven at will, en route to a two touchdown, 7.3 YPC line. Despite having two fewer carries than counterpart Terrance West (who is also worth an add this week), Crowell has clearly become the best option in Cleveland, and is a top 15 RB going forward. He’s still available in 41% of Yahoo leagues. Latavius Murray, RB, Broncos Another hot name after showing serious burst in week 11, Latavius Murray blew up for 112 yards and two touchdowns – including a 90-yard score – on Thursday night. This is despite the fact that he only touched the ball FOUR times (!!) after suffering a concussion. Coach Tony Sparano admitted that Murray has earned an increased role going forward. Murray should be owned in all formats. Keep an eye on his practice habits this week, as Murray will have to comply with the league’s concussion protocol. Alfred Blue, RB, Texans I don’t love Alfred Blue - so this one is for the very desperate fantasy owners. He has consistently shown a lack of burst (3.6 YPC this year), and has only gotten into the end zone once on 129 touches. However, the Texans are being extra cautious with Arian Foster’s groin injury. In an offense that will be starting its third QB of the year this week, Blue could be worth a start simply based on volume. Wide Recievers Jarvis Landry, WR, Dolphins Dolphins WR target leaders over the last four weeks: Jarvis Landry (32), Mike Wallace (28), Brian Hartline (14), Brandon Gibson (13). In those four games, Landry has found the end zone four times. This past week, Landry hauled in 7-of-11 targets, for 50 yards and two scores. Playing in the slot WR role, Landry has quietly been a PPR asset for most of this season. Going forward, he should be seen as a low-risk borderline fantasy starter, especially PPR leagues. He gets the Jets’ soft secondary on Monday night. Kenny Stills, WR, Saints After rookie WR Brandin Cooks was placed on the IR last week, many were unsure how the Saints’ offense would adjust. On Monday night, our questions were answered: Kenny Stills has been given Cooks’ role. Stills led Saints WRs with nine targets, and there’s no reason why his workload should decrease at all going forward. He should be owned in most formats, and is a decent start against Pittsburgh and Carolina in the next two weeks. John Brown, WR, Cardinals I mentioned last week that Michael Floyd, even in the absence of Larry Fitzgerald, should be avoided. He never touched the ball in Seattle. John Brown, however, has seen 23 targets in his past three weeks, and has a great opportunity against the Falcons should Fitzgerald sit out again. Brown’s playmaking ability down the field makes him a great fit in Bruce Arians’ risk-loving offense. Brown should now be owned, and would make for a very solid play if he gets the start in Atlanta. Tight Ends Kyle Rudolph, TE, Vikings After missing seven games, Rudolph has been eased back into the lineup. He played on 29% and 88% of snaps in weeks 11 and 12, respectively. This suggests that the wait may finally be over. In a Mike Zimmer offense that has lacked playmaking ability, Rudolph should be Teddy Bridgewater’s first option around the goal line going forward. He should be seen as a high-ceiling streamer at a very thin fantasy position. He gets the Panthers and Jets next. Tim Wright, TE, Patriots In typical Bill Belichick fashion, Tim Wright essentially came out of nowhere to play on a season-high 75% of snaps. He has now seen at least six targets in two of his past three games, and has caught Tom Brady’s attention in the red zone. He’s scored six times in his past seven games. Let’s keep in mind that Belichick cannot be trusted (see: Jonas Gray). As long as Tim Wright shows up to practice on time all week, he can be seen as a high-risk TE streamer in a game vs. the Packers that should involve tons of points. FALLING Running Backs: Giovani Bernard, RB, Bengals After a three game absence, and the emergence of Jeremy Hill, it was clear that Bernard’s role would be modified. Despite being listed as the starting running back this past week, Bernard was outplayed by Hill. He showed burst on a 19-yard run early on. Other than that, however, he gained 26 yards on 16 carries (1.6 YPC). Hill also saw all the action at the goal line. Going forward. Bernard is not an ideal start, at a position that has quite a few replacement options on waivers in most leagues. Andre Ellington, RB, Cardinals Every offensive player for the Cardinals was shut down in Seattle this past week, so it should be seen as an outlier in most cases. Ellington’s ineffectiveness, however, is no outlier. Ellington hasn’t rushed for 25 yards in two of his past three games. Over those three games, Ellington has averaged a dreadful 1.9 YPC. He’s staying relevant due to his role in the passing game, however. He’s a solid start purely based on volume, especially in PPR leagues, but needs to show more burst to get back to the elite fantasy status he had earlier in the season. He has a great opportunity in Atlanta this week. Then, he faces a very tough schedule for the fantasy stretch run (KC, @STL, SEA). Wide Recievers Rueben Randle, WR, Giants Rueben Randle has put up decent fantasy production for most of the 2014 season. However, his lack of real-life success, and his frequent inability to connect with Eli Manning, has sent Randle towards fantasy benches. This past week, Eli was (justifiably) locked in on the much more talented Odell Beckham, who saw more targets (11) than all other WRs combined. Randle saw just three. Try to find alternative options. Reggie Wayne, WR, Colts Reggie Wayne is 36-years-old, and is one year removed from ACL surgery. After a very strong start to the 2014 season, it’s become clear that Reggie is no longer playing at a very high level. Andrew Luck has tried to feed him the ball all year – Wayne has seen 28 targets in his past three weeks, and has averaged more than eight targets per game this season. However, these numbers are misleading. Reggie has hauled in 20-of-55 targets in the past five weeks. This past week in particular, Chuck Pagano admitted to forcing the ball to Wayne late in the game in order to keep his three-catch streak alive (it’s now at 81 straight games). Andrew Luck’s security blanket is no longer trustworthy in fantasy leagues. Tight Ends Antonio Gates, TE, Chargers I talked about Gates here last week, but I think he’s worth mentioning again. Fantasy owners who added Gates early on this year were instantly rewarded. As of week seven, Gates had an absurd nine touchdowns, including six in his past four games. Since, however, he has been a fantasy dud. Over the past three weeks, he has seen 10 targets, and has averaged less than 2.5 fantasy points in standard leagues. Gates is still a beast in the red zone, and the TE position may be too thin to replace him. However, he’s going to be a fantasy dud more often than not. He is completely touchdown dependent. |
