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Risers and Fallers: Week 12 
By David Cherney
Hey fantasy football-ers, welcome to the weekly risers and fallers column. This is my first week doing this piece, so let me explain why you should care. The column highlights a few players at the RB, WR, and TE positions that are trending upwards or downwards going into the next few weeks of action. Predicted trends are largely based on usage and targets – using FootballDiehards’ target and target zone data tool. In the piece, you’ll find players both on your waiver wire and on active rosters. My goal is to give you a competitive edge on your fantasy rivals who may not watch these trends as closely as you. RISING Running Backs Jonas Gray, RB, Patriots After Stevan Ridley tore his ACL and MCL against the Bengals, RB Jonas Gray was signed to the Patriots’ practice squad. Just over a month later, he posts an absolutely mammoth statline in Indy: 38 carries, 199 yards, four touchdowns. 13 of those carries came inside the red zone. It’s worth noting that all this came against Indy’s soft run defense. It’s also worth noting that Belichick is the definition of non-committal, especially with RBs. This statline is simply too strong to ignore, however, making Gray a must add in all formats, and a decent bet to reach the end zone even against Detroit’s stingy front seven next week. Tre Mason, RB, Rams The backfield in St. Louis has been quite the nightmare for fantasy owners in the first half of the 2014 season. Ultimately, the most talented back – Tre Mason – has emerged as the clear go-to guy for Jeff Fisher. Staring down the Chargers and Raiders in the next two weeks, Mason is certainly a top 15-20 running back going forward, with potential to get even better. He joins Jonas Gray as a must add RB off waivers this week, and a buy-low candidate. CJ Anderson, RB, Broncos It’s simple – Anderson is now the number one back in Peyton Manning’s offense. Montee Ball is now expected to miss up to several weeks, joining the already sidelined Ronnie Hillman. In the past three weeks, no running back has more pass targets than Anderson (21). Going forward, Anderson is a top-15 RB, despite tough matchups against the Dolphins and Chiefs. Bump him up even further in PPR leagues. Also: Bishop Sankey, Isaiah Crowell, Fred Jackson, Trent Richardson/Dan Herron, Latavius Murray Wide Recievers Josh Gordon, WR, Browns It’s more than likely that Gordon has either been sitting on a bench in your league all season, or a savvy owner has scooped him up in advance of his reinstatement this past Monday. Gordon, however, is available in 23% of Yahoo leagues. If you play in one of these leagues, don’t walk to add him. RUN. Last season, he led the NFL in receiving yards (1,646), and was top-12 in targets (159), receptions (87), and yards after catch (631). Despite his absence from practice since the summer, Gordon becomes a top an instant must start based on potential alone. He’s the game-changer Brian Hoyer and the Browns desperately need. Jordan Matthews, WR, Eagles Matthews is also a guy that is owned in most leagues – but still remains available in far too many. Having spent most of the offseason working with Mark Sanchez on the second-team offense, the pair has been able to bring their chemistry to the field right away. In his past two games with Sanchez under center, Matthews has 17 targets – one less than his counterpart, Jeremy Maclin, and more than superstar WRs Jordy Nelson, TY Hilton, and Larry Fitzgerald. Jordan Matthews has become a solid starter in standard leagues. He gets the Titans next. Also: Martavis Bryant, John Brown, Cecil Shorts/Allen Hurns. Tight Ends Coby Fleener, TE, Colts Fleener was a hot topic on fantasy columns all of last week, due to the Patriots’ inability to cover tight ends. So, take his week 11 statline with a grain of salt. Those of us who watched the game saw, however, three or four highlight reel catches – including a toe-drag along the sidelines that was confirmed on review – that we simply didn’t know Coby was capable of making. He now has 18 targets in his last two games (!!). With Dwayne Allen nursing a low-ankle sprain, expect Fleener, who played with Andrew Luck at Stanford, to get more looks going forward. He sees the Jaguars and Redskins in the next two weeks, both of whom struggle mightily to cover the tight end. At a position that is VERY thin, consider Fleener a solid streamer option going forward. Also: Kyle Rudolph, Mychal Rivera, Charles Clay, JJ Watt (KIDDING). FALLING Running Backs: Giovani Bernard, RB, Bengals Bernard owners who used Jeremy Hill as a handcuff were rewarded the past three weeks. The 20-year-old Hill, the 55th selection in this year’s draft, has been a complete back in Bernard’s absence. The guy has burst, and game-changing abilities. With Bernard’s return looming (signs point towards this week), Marvin Lewis and Hue Jackson will likely try out a timeshare – bad news for owners of both backs. I would be hesitant to start Gio until we see the carry distribution against the Texans and Buccaneers in the next two weeks. Montee Ball, RB, Broncos In accordance with CJ Anderson entering the “risers” section, Montee Ball is droppable in all leagues. He will be out for a few weeks after aggravating his groin injury this past week (the Broncos had a LOT of injuries on offense in St. Louis). Even if he returns in time for fantasy playoffs (that’s IF), he simply hasn’t been effective enough to warrant much consideration in any scenario. Wide Recievers Andrew Hawkins, WR, Browns Hawkins has been a PPR treasure in recent weeks – he has been targeted 21 times in his past two games. I don’t expect Hawkins to disappear with the return of Josh Gordon, but Gordon’s targets have to come from somewhere. Hawkins is still stash-worthy, but should not be trusted now that he’s not Hoyer’s go-to guy. It will be interesting to see how Hawkins’ targets change in the next two weeks against the Falcons and Bills. Michael Floyd, WR, Cardinals “But he got in the end zone twice this week!” you say. Michael Floyd isn’t the prototypical “faller” – he’s coming off his best fantasy output of the season. Further, Larry Fitzgerald sprained his MCL (although he expects to play this week). Take this as a warning – do not be deceived by Floyd’s most recent statline. He has seen no more than five targets in any of his past five games. This week, his only two catches went for scores. Floyd has become a completely untrustworthy, boom-or-bust WR that should be glued to your bench until he gives us a better reason to start him. The Cards will visit the Legion of Boom next week. Tight Ends Vernon Davis, TE, 49ers This one seems way too obvious to me. However, I feel compelled to include him. This week, he was started in 44% of Yahoo leagues. His five targets this past week are even deceiving – he hasn’t been a part of Harbaugh’s offense this whole season. What were those owners thinking? Please try to swap Vernon for one of the TE risers I mentioned above. Please. Antonio Gates, TE, Chargers Fantasy owners who added Gates early on this year were instantly rewarded. As of week seven, Gates had an absurd nine touchdowns, including six in his past four games. Since, however, he has been a fantasy dud. Over the past two weeks, he saw eight targets, and averaged 3.0 fantasy points in standard leagues. Gates is still a beast in the red zone, and the TE position may be too thin to replace him. However, don’t expect weekly TE1 production from Gates going forward – he is completely touchdown dependent. |
