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3/28/2024
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FlashUpdate/AugustUpdate




IDP UPDATE


Click here for UPDATED IDP Cheat Sheet


LINEBACKERS NOTES
The word of the day in IDP leagues at the linebacker position this year is "sidelined." We're barely in August, and already no fewer than four top 10 fantasy options at the position (Sean Lee of the Cowboys, Kiko Alonso of the Bills, Daryl Washington of the Cardinals and NaVorro Bowman of the 49ers) are already out for the season or a large part of it. Those injuries (and Washington's suspension) have already taken a big bite out of the depth at the top of the position, and that in turn is driving up the ADP on the elite linebackers.

Jadeveon Clowney of the Texans may have been the first player taken in the 2014 NFL draft, but he isn't the top rookie linebacker in IDP in 2014. That honor goes to C.J. Mosley of the Ravens, who appears set to play every down inside from Day 1 in Baltimore. Ryan Shazier of the Steelers, who like Mosley will play three downs inside in the AFC North as a rookie, isn't far behind, while Clowney and (to a lesser extent) Khalil Mack of the Raiders will be higher-variance options better suited to big-play IDP leagues.

Value is the name of the game in fantasy football, and there are more than a few options available later in drafts with the potential to become reliable weekly starters. The Tennessee Titans brought in Wesley Woodyard in free agency, and have installed the 28-year-old as a three-down player in Ray Horton's new 3-4 front. Similarly, Brad Jones of the Packers has shown the ability to be a productive IDP asset in the past, and Jones has reportedly been re-installed in subpackages in Green Bay. Both players possess top 25 fantasy upside this year with considerably lower draft-day price tags.

Also, while the injuries that have decimated the top of the linebackers have been unfortunate, they've also opened the door of opportunity for some IDP "sleeper" types. Veteran Larry Foote went from minor depth signing to every-down starter for the Cardinals after Washington was suspended. Bruce Carter struggled mightily for the Cowboys in 2013, but with Lee out someone has to make tackles for a defense that's going to be on the field a ton. Nigel Bradham of the Bills went from roster bubble to presumptive starter when Alonso tore his ACL. There's more than a little value with those players as well.

DEFENSIVE BACK NOTES
When it comes to drafting defensive backs in IDP leagues, one word is all you need to know. Wait. Then wait some more. Then order pizza. Then watch all 38 “Friday the 13th” movies. Then wait some more. Yes, having a player like Barry Church of the Cowboys (and his 100-solo upside) is tempting. The thing is, defensive backs are both plentiful and unpredictable, and there will be viable DB1 options such as Reshad Jones of the Dolphins and Stevie Brown of the Giants available much later in drafts than the so-called “elite” options. Success in fantasy football drafts is all about finding value, and with DBs that value lies later in the draft.

DEFENSIVE LINEMEN NOTES
Savvy IDP owners would be well-served to set aside a relatively early pick to use on one of this year’s elite defensive linemen. It isn’t an inexpensive proposition (especially where J.J. Watt of the Texans and Robert Quinn of the Rams are concerned), but after Watt, Quinn, Chandler Jones and Greg Hardy each option has at least one big question hanging over their heads. Hardy does as well, but it’s unlikely his assault trial reaches a verdict before the end of the 2014 season

However, if you miss out on that quartet, it isn’t the end of the world. Cameron Wake of the Dolphins was near the top of the league in peripheral stats last year and should bounce back from an injury-plagued 2013. Jared Allen of the Bears and DeMarcus Ware of the Broncos both switched teams in the offseason and are well the wrong side of 30, but both also have a long track record of elite-level IDP production. Yes there’s some risk, but there’s also substantial upside.

Looking for a couple of late-draft value plays up front? Jerry Hughes of the Bills put up double-digit sacks in Buffalo, has shined on OTAs and training camp, and plays on a Bills’ front four that’s as loaded as any in the National Football League. Chris Clemons of the Jaguars was reunited with head coach Gus Bradley, for whom Clemons had three straight years of 11+ sacks in Seattle. Both offer fantasy starter upside that can be had very cheaply in many IDP drafts.

In IDP fluke statistical explosions can be a dangerous pitfall, and for that reason we’re leery of Justin Tuck of the Raiders in 2014. Tuck parlayed 9.5 sacks over the last six games of 2013 into a top-five fantasy finish and free agent deal with the Raiders. Look a little deeper, however, and you’ll see that over the 42 games preceding that (dating back to the beginning of the 2011 season), Tuck managed only 10.5 sacks. Not a number that inspires the warm and fuzzies when talking about a 31-year-old defensive end.
   
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