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Fantasy Forecast
By Mike Beacom
10 fantasy breakthrough performers for 2010
By Mike Beacom
FootballDiehards.com
Fantasy owners are value searchers, obsessed with finding players that offer upside but come with a reasonable asking price. While the first and second round is where elite fantasy players are most often found, value picks serve as the foundation for championship rosters. Those teams with Ray Rice, Miles Austin and Brent Celek last year received an added boost, as each jumped off the bench to produce top-tier fantasy totals.
Who will be this year’s Rice, Austin or Celek? Tough to say, but this past season did offer a few hints that fantasy owners must consider.
Here is a list of 10 players ready to reach new ground in 2010 …
QB Chad Henne, Miami
The Dolphins should be thrilled about Henne’s potential; fantasy owners need be thrilled, too. He registered three 300-yard games in his final five starts of 2009, and he completed better than 60 percent of his passes in each of his final four. What’s more, he has a young group of receivers to grow with and a coaching staff that’s capable of helping to make him a premier passer. With the Wildcat in tow, Miami may never become the Arizona of the East, but Henne certainly is capable of becoming a top 15 fantasy passer in his third NFL season.
QB Matthew Stafford, Detroit
Hey, why not? Stafford wasn’t all lemons in his debut season (422 yards and five touchdowns in a Week 11 win over Cleveland), and a number of great NFL quarterbacks began their careers on lousy teams (Terry Bradshaw and Troy Aikman come to mind). With a legitimate No. 1 receiver (Calvin Johnson) and a potential franchise tight end (Brandon Pettigrew) Stafford has the supporting cast to turn around the Detroit offense fast.
RB LeSean McCoy, Philadelphia
McCoy was the Eagles top back as a rookie, but with little to offer fantasy owners (four touchdowns, no 100-yard games). That will change in year two. Brian Westbrook’s future with the team is in doubt because McCoy has convinced team officials that he can develop into a feature back. Though not as versatile as Westbrook, McCoy did catch 40 passes in 2009 and will have an even bigger role in the passing game moving forward. He may just crack the top 15 fantasy backs.
RB Darren McFadden, Oakland
Heard this before? Better believe it this time around. McFadden has dealt with constant chaos around him with no one to offer support. The Raiders will not be a contender in 2010 but they will have a much improved offense unit. And few players in the league have as much to motivate them as McFadden does; of the first 11 backs selected in the 2008 NFL Draft, only McFadden has failed to find early success.
RB Shonn Greene, NY Jets
A no-brainer. Thomas Jones has had a brilliant career but it was evident he started to wear down toward the end of the 2009 season. Greene offered the Jets a spark in December and January (two 100-yard efforts in the playoffs) and many predict he will become the team’s feature back. Greene averaged a respectable 5.0 yards per carry in his debut (almost a full yard better than Jones) and on a ball control team like New York he has potential to be fantasy gold.
WR Michael Crabtree, San Francisco
Crabtree probably would have won rookie of the year honors had he not been a camp no show. He caught 48 balls in just 11 games – rare success for a rookie, but then again Crabtree was no ordinary rookie. The 49ers will work to feature him in the passing game, meaning more catches, yards and touchdowns for second-year stud. Fantasy owners should not reach, but considering Crabtree a potential No. 2 receiver in most leagues wouldn’t be a stretch.
WR Mohamed Massaquoi, Cleveland
The Browns’ flashy rookie burst onto the scene in Week 4 of last year with eight catches for 148 yards. But Massaquoi’s numbers will deceive fantasy owners heading into this season, as most will only pay attention to his so-so catch (34) and touchdown totals (three). The key number to consider is the number of times Browns quarterbacks targeted him on passing downs (94). As Cleveland addresses its issues, Massaquoi is one player likely to benefit.
WR Andre Caldwell, Cincinnati
Caldwell caught a healthy 51 passes in his second season but failed to satisfy fantasy owners by posting 432 yards (just 8.5 yards per catch) and four touchdowns. Part of the problem is the presence of Chad Ochocinco and Laveranues Coles, both of whom demand Carson Palmer’s attention. But both are 32 years old, suggesting an opportunity for Caldwell to flex his muscle more in the offense. Fantasy owners are hoping Caldwell is up to the challenge.
WR Brian Hartline, Miami
Hartline is a Bill Parcells-type of guy, which is why it was no surprise that the team gave him plenty of opportunities in his first season (he led the team in touchdown catches and finished third in receiving yards). Hartline has good big-play potential (he finished 10th in the NFL in yards per catch) but must haul in more catches to help fantasy owners in PPR leagues. As a No. 3 or 4 fantasy receiver he could emerge as a strong weapon.
TE Fred Davis, Washington
The injury to Chris Cooley gave Davis a chance to shine in Washington’s struggling passing game. He caught five touchdowns during one four-week span and finished the year with 48 catches. He also offered fantasy owners consistency, recording four or more catches in six of the final 10 games of the year. New coach Mike Shanahan has a history of developing weapons in the passing game and few doubt Davis will be one of his next great projects.
Mike Beacom is a contributing writer for FootballDiehards.com.
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