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Each season a number of NFL
scheduling oddities appear. The 2005 season is no exception. If you're a
serious Fantasy Football owner, you'll want to consider every edge possible
-- including scheduling anomalies.
Learn how to use "Hot Spots" to target waiver wire pickups,
craftily time trades and optimize your roster for the playoffs.
In this article, 4for4.com’s Greg Alan breaks down the 2005 NFL schedule.
You’ll find vital tactics that can positively change your outlook and lead
to big results.
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Folks, to win your league championship, you must get hot at the end of the
season!
All your research during the summer will fail to net a championship if you
run out of gas during your Fantasy playoffs.
LESS EFFORT + MORE RESULTS = A MUST
DO
Many Fantasy strategies and tactics often require tons of preparation and
often result in rather minimal gain. However, leveraging “Hot Spots” requires
little time and often yields a big upshot. Sound good? Buckle up, let’s dig
in…
In truth, having just one
or two favorable add-on scheduling match-ups during your playoffs is often
all it takes to gain an edge -- and walk off with a championship.
In this article, I make a case for the phrase "Timing is
Everything." Keep that theme in mind this season. If you wisely leverage
the NFL schedule, you'll be able to cleverly time trades, artfully target
waiver wire pickups and most importantly, optimize your roster for the
playoffs.
Even if your draft doesn't go well, by leveraging "Hot Spots"
you'll be turning negatives into positives and strengthening your team.
We’ll start out with some traditional Strength of Schedule (SOS) research. In
addition, I'll offer up a few observations.
I'll also share the initial 4for4.com 2005 Defense Team rankings. We'll
integrate these rankings into the 2005 NFL schedule. Then, we'll build a
roadmap and flag some "Hot Spots." Here, we'll pay particular
attention to the final few weeks of the NFL regular season -- Fantasy
Football playoff time.
In addition, we’ll review
the 4for4.com Team Defense “Hot Spots” -- a great time saver in helping plan
out your Team Defensive starts.
But, before we dig in, I need to get everyone on board and talk about how
important the NFL schedule is when it comes to winning your Fantasy Football
Championship.
Case Study No. 1 - Chris Schussman
wins big in WCOFF
Back in 2002, despite drafting Vinny
Testaverde and Shane Matthews
as his starting QBs and fielding a draft day roster that claimed Rod Gardner as a No. 1 receiver, the
WCOFF league champion, Mr. Chris Schussman, walked away with a cool $200,000 grand prize. How
did he do it? Plain and simple, he got red-hot in the playoffs starting in
Week 13. As it turns out, each of his first three draft picks had green
(good) "Hot Spots" in the WCOFF playoffs. All three of his top
picks delivered when it counted the most, and Chris walked away a huge WCOFF
winner!
Case Study No. 2 – Greg Alan goes
53-0!
That same year, I competed in an 11-team private Fantasy league. In this
auction/draft league I faced long time rivals, several of whom I consider to
be among the strongest Fantasy Football players in the world. Because I built
my roster around the 4for4.com "Hot Spots" I was literally
unstoppable after mid season. In fact, I was the highest scoring team six
weeks in a row! As a result, coming down the stretch I posted a head-to-head
record of 53-0, dominated the playoffs and walked off with another
championship.
Case Study No. 3 – Jim McVicar plans
and wins FFTOC
The 2004 FFTOC Champion, Jim McVicar, summed it up this way, “Doesn’t it always seem the
same guys have the most luck each year.
I would wager that they are the same guys that are spending mega hours
doing research. It seems the harder
you work the luckier you get. I started working on (and planning out) my
lineups for last year in May just as I have this year… I really can’t wait
for this season to begin.” Turns out,
Jim saved and planned to use Culpepper,
McGahee, Lee Evans and Randy Moss in the final week of the
FFTOC playoffs. All those players had easy match-ups, giving McVicar the
points he needed to win the FFTOC title.
After all the
draft day strategy, all the player evaluations and preseason analysis, the
fact remains -- if you want to win a big-time national contest like WCOFF or
the FFTOC you need to get hot at the end of the season. If you don't get hot
at the end, your chances of winning it all are slim. The same is true in most
local leagues -- you must end very strong.
Next, I'll address specifics about the 2005 NFL season. I'll focus on
actionable tips and things you can use.
Strength of Schedule (SOS)
To kick things off, we'll start by examining opponents' win-loss records from
the prior season. As is the case with much SOS data, you'll want to use
caution and good reasoning, especially if your SOS analysis completely hinges
on performance from last year.
I'd strongly suggest you steer clear of fragmented stats derived solely from
last year's data. As much as I love analysis, Fantasy managers that drill
down into measures like "Yardage Allowed to a TE" and
"Opponent's Red-zone FG accuracy" often miss the big picture. These
studies often lack predictive rigor. Measures like "Yardage Allowed to
an Opposing No. 3 WR" rarely hold up from year-to-year.
Rather than generate a stack of metrics based on last year's data, the trick
is to look for significant outliers and shifts from the prior season. That’s
exactly what Table I does for us.
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Rank
(schedule going
easier to harder)
|
Team
|
%Change
from 2004 to 2005
|
2005
Opponents
Prior to Season
|
2004
Opponents
Prior to Season
|
2003
Opponents
Prior to Season
|
|
1
|
ARI
|
-7.4
|
0.449
|
0.523
|
0.443
|
|
2
|
STL
|
-6.7
|
0.445
|
0.512
|
0.457
|
|
3
|
SEA
|
-5.9
|
0.457
|
0.516
|
0.443
|
|
4
|
SF
|
-4.1
|
0.471
|
0.512
|
0.451
|
|
5
|
WAS
|
-2.7
|
0.465
|
0.492
|
0.537
|
|
6
|
PHI
|
-1.9
|
0.453
|
0.472
|
0.541
|
|
7
|
MIN
|
-1.6
|
0.480
|
0.496
|
0.478
|
|
8
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CHI
|
-1.6
|
0.480
|
0.496
|
0.48
|
|
9
|
GB
|
-1.2
|
0.496
|
0.508
|
0.449
|
|
10
|
NO
|
-1.2
|
0.492
|
0.504
|
0.52
|
|
11
|
JAX
|
-1.2
|
0.504
|
0.516
|
0.537
|
|
12
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HOU
|
-0.6
|
0.504
|
0.51
|
0.533
|
|
13
|
DET
|
-0.4
|
0.488
|
0.492
|
0.473
|
|
14
|
IND
|
-0.4
|
0.504
|
0.508
|
0.518
|
|
15
|
CAR
|
0
|
0.492
|
0.492
|
0.524
|
|
16
|
TEN
|
0.6
|
0.492
|
0.486
|
0.524
|
|
17
|
DAL
|
0.8
|
0.477
|
0.469
|
0.541
|
|
18
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TB
|
0.8
|
0.492
|
0.484
|
0.539
|
|
19
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NYG
|
0.8
|
0.488
|
0.48
|
0.522
|
|
20
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ATL
|
1.2
|
0.5
|
0.488
|
0.523
|
|
21
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CIN
|
1.5
|
0.523
|
0.508
|
0.508
|
|
22
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OAK
|
1.5
|
0.527
|
0.512
|
0.482
|
|
23
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MIA
|
1.6
|
0.547
|
0.531
|
0.516
|
|
24
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BUF
|
1.9
|
0.531
|
0.512
|
0.504
|
|
25
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NYJ
|
2.3
|
0.535
|
0.512
|
0.541
|
|
26
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BAL
|
2.3
|
0.531
|
0.508
|
0.48
|
|
27
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NE
|
2.7
|
0.539
|
0.512
|
0.527
|
|
28
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PIT
|
3.2
|
0.508
|
0.476
|
0.473
|
|
29
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DEN
|
3.3
|
0.523
|
0.49
|
0.494
|
|
30
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SD
|
3.7
|
0.543
|
0.506
|
0.486
|
|
31
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CLE
|
3.9
|
0.527
|
0.488
|
0.48
|
|
32
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KC
|
4.7
|
0.535
|
0.488
|
0.475
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A few things to keep in
mind as you examine Table I…
* If you liked the Seahawks' offense
last year, you'll enjoy the 2005 season. The Seahawks look to benefit from
their 2005 schedule as long as they keep the offense together and healthy. Shaun Alexander faces plenty of
teams that can’t stop the run. In addition to doubling up against the Rams and Cardinals, Seattle also gets to play the 49ers twice. What’s really exciting, during FF playoffs, the
Seahawks get the 49ers and Titans. When you need it most, Alexander could come up huge.
Compared to what they faced in 2004, Seattle has a much easier schedule this
year.
* The Cardinals' offense might
do better than some might think. The schedule makers certainly did their
part. The Cards schedule is much easier in 2005 than it was last year (45
percent vs. 52 percent). In fact, the "best" defense the Cardinals
face in their first four games is the Seahawks. In addition, Denny Green’s team manages to avoid
all the top defensive units until Week 16, when they face the Eagles. If AZ players like Kurt Warner and rookie RB J.J.
Arrington come out of the gate strong, be sure to take action.
AZ has the luxury of facing the Lions,
Rams, 49ers, Titans and Texans
in 2005. Any way you cut it, some good match-ups will be had.
* In part, as a result of going 15-1 last year, the Steelers finally play a schedule with above-average difficulty.
Prior to 2005, the Steelers always seemed to enjoy a major scheduling
advantage. To properly evaluate this situation, keep in mind the Steelers faced
a relatively easy schedule in 2001, 2002, 2003 and 2004. Pittsburgh’s offense
line must continue to play at a high level if the Steelers are to have
offensive success again in 2005. The good news, late in the season the
Steelers face the Browns and Lions. Both are questionable
defensive teams so Bettis, Staley,
Ward and Company could deliver when you need it most.
* Due to a disappointing performance in 2004, the Saints have a slightly easier schedule in 2005. Aaron Brooks and the Saints will
battle foes with a 49 percent win rate. It’s time for Brooks to step up or he
could be history in New Orleans. In Week 16, with many FF Super Bowls hanging
in the balance, Brooks, McAllister
and Joe Horn face their
easiest defensive foe all year, the Lions.
* In a case of the rich getting richer, things look very promising for Colts
offense from Weeks 3 to 7. Over that five-week stretch Peyton Manning, Reggie Wayne, Marvin
Harrison and Edge James
will work their magic against the
Browns, Titans, 49ers, Rams and
Texans before a bye in Week 8.
It doesn’t get much easier than that, and it hardly seems fair.
* The Rams should have no
excuses. They have a much easier schedule in 2005. In fact, they have the
second most favorable shift in schedule difficulty in the entire league. In
addition, Mike Martz’s unit
plays the easiest schedule in the NFL.
Bulger, Holt, Jackson and
Bruce open the season against the 49ers, Cardinals, Titans and Giants. If you want your Fantasy team to get off to a good
start, load up on the Rams.
* Despite a winning season in 2004, the Eagles (47 percent to 45 percent), Packers (51 percent to 50 percent) and Vikings (50 percent to 48 percent) all appear to have easier
schedules in 2005. And, we’ll find out early just how good the Vikings are
without Randy Moss. In Week 1 Culpepper takes on the always-rugged
Bucs defense.
* The Packers should be able
to pile on Fantasy points the first two weeks facing the Lions and Browns. In addition, a few weeks later they get the porous Saints defense. If you own Brett Favre, Ahman Green or Javon
Walker and they’re really kicking it after Week 5, consider trading
them and make sure you get plenty in return. You might be able to pull a
classic sell-high move and dump the Packers' trio right before their stock drops.
Over the next 12 weeks, they’ll face much better defenses, including the Ravens in critical Week 15.
* On the flip side, look at those poor Bengals. During a six game period, Carson Palmer and Rudi
Johnson face the Ravens
twice and the Steelers twice.
And, overall the Bengals' schedule is more difficult in 2005. About the only
good news here is during FF playoff time -- the Bengals face the Browns and Lions, two below-average defensive teams. On paper, plan for the
Bengals' offense to start out decent, fade during mid season and bounce back
again late in the year.
* The Cleveland Browns have a
legitimate gripe about their luck! If losing Kellen Winslow to injury in 2004 and 2005 wasn’t bad enough, the
Browns' 2005 schedule actually gets significantly more difficult. In 2005,
the Browns will be battling teams with a combined 53 percent win percentage.
In 2004, before the season started, Cleveland’s opponents tallied a 49
percent win rate. And, against that level of competition, the Browns only
managed to go 4-12. It figures to be a long year for QB Trent Dilfer, rookie WR Braylon Edwards and RB Lee Suggs.
* Other teams facing harder schedules in 2005 (relative to 2004) include the Chiefs, Broncos and Chargers. In fact, despite a poor
showing last year, KC faces its most difficult schedule in several years,
playing the Pats, Bills, Jets and Eagles
this season.
Against the Run / Against the Pass
Examining the 2005 Schedule using an opponent's record from the prior year
gives you a reasonable idea of schedule difficulty. Sure, its far from
perfect, still it offers you a "vaguely right" approach.
Ideally, for Fantasy Football purposes, we'd like to objectively segment
defensive team pass and rush performance. Then, everything else being equal,
forecast passing and rushing using last year's data. The problem is, in going
from last year to this year, everything else isn't equal.
If you segment last year’s defensive pass and defensive rush performance and
follow it blindly, you face the very real risk of being "precisely
wrong." All that being said, year-to-year pass/rush data does offer a
modest level of predictive accuracy. Given that, below are a few observations
to consider.
* Last season in this space, I identified the Colts as the team having the easiest pass defense schedule. We
said, “Peyton Manning owners
could really be loving life if this data holds up.” Well, Peyton Manning took full advantage
and broke many of Dan Marino’s
passing records. This season, the Jacksonville
Jaguars have the distinction of facing the easiest pass defense
schedule. Byron Leftwich
owners, are you listening?
* Presumably it’s Tatum Bell,
but regardless of who it is, the RB that gets the bulk of carries in Denver this year could once again
turn out to be special. The Broncos have one of the easiest schedules when it
comes to opposing run defense.
* After Pittsburgh, Atlanta arguably had the second best
rushing attack in the NFL last year. In 2005, the rich could get richer.
According to last year's data, Michael
Vick and the Falcons
face a very soft run defense schedule.
* The Carolina Panthers get a
break based on their schedule. Assuming they can get someone healthy to carry
the rock, Carolina should
enjoy some success rushing in 2005. Out of 32 NFL teams, Carolina has the
fourth easiest run defense schedule.
* We all know the Ravens love
to run the ball. But, on paper, Jamal
Lewis faces the eighth most difficult run defense schedule in 2005.
Weeks 8 to 11 look particularly hard.
* Using last year's data and this year's schedule, the Bengals, Dolphins, Browns, Colts and
Giants may have the biggest
challenge running. While prior year rush defense offers some forecasting
validity, obviously don't count out Edge
James. However, Rudi Johnson,
Lee Suggs and rookie RB Ronnie
Brown could be in for some extra hard sledding in 2005. The Browns play the hardest schedule
against the run; the Bengals
face the second most difficult.
* Last year's data suggests the Jags,
Bears, Titans, Vikings and Broncos
have an easy 2005 schedule when it comes to passing. Not far behind, Peyton Manning and the Colts are
next on the list. We know the Colts will be passing plenty. However, the Bears have implemented a new
offensive scheme which is run oriented so don't be shocked if Chicago's
passing offense doesn’t do much despite their schedule.
* Jake Plummer could once
again make for an excellent late round value pick. Don’t forget, last year,
in many Fantasy leagues Plummer actually outscored Vick, Brady, Hasselbeck and Aaron Brooks. Plus, Denver
plays a soft passing defense schedule in 2005.
* Carson Palmer isn't going to
be catching any breaks this season due to an easy schedule. Using 2004 stats,
the Bengals, by far, will be
facing the best cumulative pass defense this year. Likewise, Ben Roethlisberger
and the Steelers will also have their work cut out for them moving the ball
in the air.
* The Tampa Bay Bucs should
come up big running the ball in 2005. Coach Gruden’s squad plays the easiest
schedule in the entire NFL when it comes to opposing run defense. Add to that
Tampa drafted one of the most exciting college RBs to come out in the past
five years, and it figures the Bucs will be gaining big yards on the ground.
The punch line? Keep you eye on Carnell
“Cadillac” Williams. As a pro prospect, Williams fairly easily
outranked Steven Jackson, Kevin
Jones, Clinton Portis, William Green and Larry Johnson when they were drafted.
* Deuce McAllister managers
should be happy about the Saints schedule. New Orleans plays the third easiest
schedule against the run in 2005. The fact the Saints also drafted super stud
OT Jammal Brown certainly doesn’t hurt McAllister’s stock. In my book, Brown
looks like an excellent NFL prospect and should be able to create some big
lanes for Deuce.
Table II– Using 2004 Data to Estimate
2005 Pass/Run Schedule Difficulty
|
Against the Pass
(Ranked Easiest to
Hardest)
|
|
Rank
|
Team
|
Avg. Ranked Pass Def.
Opponent
|
|
1
|
JAX
|
22.1
|
|
2
|
CHI
|
22.0
|
|
3
|
TEN
|
21.1
|
|
4
|
MIN
|
20.9
|
|
5
|
DEN
|
20.8
|
|
6
|
IND
|
20.8
|
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7
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DET
|
20.6
|
|
8
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HOU
|
20.5
|
|
9
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GB
|
19.9
|
|
10
|
SD
|
18.5
|
|
11
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ATL
|
17.8
|
|
12
|
CAR
|
17.8
|
|
13
|
NO
|
17.6
|
|
14
|
TB
|
17.1
|
|
15
|
KC
|
16.8
|
|
16
|
OAK
|
16.8
|
|
17
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WAS
|
16.6
|
|
18
|
ARI
|
16.5
|
|
19
|
PHI
|
16.1
|
|
20
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SEA
|
15.9
|
|
21
|
STL
|
15.2
|
|
22
|
DAL
|
14.6
|
|
23
|
NYG
|
14.1
|
|
24
|
SF
|
13.4
|
|
25
|
NE
|
12.9
|
|
26
|
BAL
|
12.6
|
|
27
|
BUF
|
12.5
|
|
28
|
NYJ
|
12.2
|
|
29
|
MIA
|
12.2
|
|
30
|
CLE
|
11.8
|
|
31
|
PIT
|
11.6
|
|
32
|
CIN
|
8.9
|
|
Against the Run
(Ranked Easiest to Hardest)
|
|
Rank
|
Team
|
Avg. Ranked
Run Def. Opponent
|
|
1
|
TB
|
21.7
|
|
2
|
ATL
|
21.3
|
|
3
|
NO
|
20.6
|
|
4
|
CAR
|
20.4
|
|
5
|
ARI
|
20.1
|
|
6
|
SD
|
19.6
|
|
7
|
DEN
|
19.5
|
|
8
|
STL
|
19.5
|
|
9
|
SEA
|
19.3
|
|
10
|
SF
|
17.5
|
|
11
|
HOU
|
17.0
|
|
12
|
BUF
|
16.8
|
|
13
|
NE
|
16.7
|
|
14
|
WAS
|
16.4
|
|
15
|
KC
|
16.3
|
|
16
|
DAL
|
15.6
|
|
17
|
GB
|
15.4
|
|
18
|
DET
|
15.2
|
|
19
|
PIT
|
15.2
|
|
20
|
PHI
|
15.1
|
|
21
|
MIN
|
15.0
|
|
22
|
NYJ
|
15.0
|
|
23
|
CHI
|
14.9
|
|
24
|
OAK
|
14.9
|
|
25
|
BAL
|
14.8
|
|
26
|
JAX
|
14.6
|
|
27
|
TEN
|
14.6
|
|
28
|
MIA
|
14.1
|
|
29
|
NYG
|
13.9
|
|
30
|
IND
|
13.8
|
|
31
|
CIN
|
13.4
|
|
32
|
CLE
|
9.9
|
|
|