The 2005 NFL Schedule:
Your Roadmap to Success
 by Greg Alan
4for4.com

Folks, to win your league championship, you must get hot at the end of the season! 

All your research during the summer will fail to net a championship if you run out of gas during your Fantasy playoffs.

LESS EFFORT + MORE RESULTS = A MUST DO
Many Fantasy strategies and tactics often require tons of preparation and often result in rather minimal gain. However, leveraging “Hot Spots” requires little time and often yields a big upshot. Sound good? Buckle up, let’s dig in…

In truth, having just one or two favorable add-on scheduling match-ups during your playoffs is often all it takes to gain an edge -- and walk off with a championship.

In this article, I make a case for the phrase "Timing is Everything." Keep that theme in mind this season. If you wisely leverage the NFL schedule, you'll be able to cleverly time trades, artfully target waiver wire pickups and most importantly, optimize your roster for the playoffs.

Even if your draft doesn't go well, by leveraging "Hot Spots" you'll be turning negatives into positives and strengthening your team.

We’ll start out with some traditional Strength of Schedule (SOS) research. In addition, I'll offer up a few observations. 

I'll also share the initial 4for4.com 2005 Defense Team rankings. We'll integrate these rankings into the 2005 NFL schedule. Then, we'll build a roadmap and flag some "Hot Spots." Here, we'll pay particular attention to the final few weeks of the NFL regular season -- Fantasy Football playoff time.

In addition, we’ll review the 4for4.com Team Defense “Hot Spots” -- a great time saver in helping plan out your Team Defensive starts.

But, before we dig in, I need to get everyone on board and talk about how important the NFL schedule is when it comes to winning your Fantasy Football Championship.

Case Study No. 1 - Chris Schussman wins big in WCOFF
Back in 2002, despite drafting Vinny Testaverde and Shane Matthews as his starting QBs and fielding a draft day roster that claimed Rod Gardner as a No. 1 receiver, the WCOFF league champion, Mr. Chris Schussman, walked away with a cool $200,000 grand prize. How did he do it? Plain and simple, he got red-hot in the playoffs starting in Week 13. As it turns out, each of his first three draft picks had green (good) "Hot Spots" in the WCOFF playoffs. All three of his top picks delivered when it counted the most, and Chris walked away a huge WCOFF winner!

Case Study No. 2 – Greg Alan goes 53-0!
That same year, I competed in an 11-team private Fantasy league. In this auction/draft league I faced long time rivals, several of whom I consider to be among the strongest Fantasy Football players in the world. Because I built my roster around the 4for4.com "Hot Spots" I was literally unstoppable after mid season. In fact, I was the highest scoring team six weeks in a row! As a result, coming down the stretch I posted a head-to-head record of 53-0, dominated the playoffs and walked off with another championship.

Case Study No. 3 – Jim McVicar plans and wins FFTOC
The 2004 FFTOC Champion, Jim McVicar, summed it up this way, “Doesn’t it always seem the same guys have the most luck each year.  I would wager that they are the same guys that are spending mega hours doing research.  It seems the harder you work the luckier you get. I started working on (and planning out) my lineups for last year in May just as I have this year… I really can’t wait for this season to begin.”  Turns out, Jim saved and planned to use Culpepper, McGahee, Lee Evans and Randy Moss in the final week of the FFTOC playoffs. All those players had easy match-ups, giving McVicar the points he needed to win the FFTOC title.

After all the draft day strategy, all the player evaluations and preseason analysis, the fact remains -- if you want to win a big-time national contest like WCOFF or the FFTOC you need to get hot at the end of the season. If you don't get hot at the end, your chances of winning it all are slim. The same is true in most local leagues -- you must end very strong.

Next, I'll address specifics about the 2005 NFL season. I'll focus on actionable tips and things you can use. 

Strength of Schedule (SOS)
To kick things off, we'll start by examining opponents' win-loss records from the prior season. As is the case with much SOS data, you'll want to use caution and good reasoning, especially if your SOS analysis completely hinges on performance from last year.

I'd strongly suggest you steer clear of fragmented stats derived solely from last year's data. As much as I love analysis, Fantasy managers that drill down into measures like "Yardage Allowed to a TE" and "Opponent's Red-zone FG accuracy" often miss the big picture. These studies often lack predictive rigor. Measures like "Yardage Allowed to an Opposing No. 3 WR" rarely hold up from year-to-year.

Rather than generate a stack of metrics based on last year's data, the trick is to look for significant outliers and shifts from the prior season. That’s exactly what Table I does for us.

Table I -
2005 Strength of Schedule
(ranking on change from 2004 to 2005)

A few things to keep in mind as you examine Table I…

* If you liked the Seahawks' offense last year, you'll enjoy the 2005 season. The Seahawks look to benefit from their 2005 schedule as long as they keep the offense together and healthy. Shaun Alexander faces plenty of teams that can’t stop the run. In addition to doubling up against the Rams and Cardinals, Seattle also gets to play the 49ers twice. What’s really exciting, during FF playoffs, the Seahawks get the 49ers and Titans. When you need it most, Alexander could come up huge. Compared to what they faced in 2004, Seattle has a much easier schedule this year.

* The Cardinals' offense might do better than some might think. The schedule makers certainly did their part. The Cards schedule is much easier in 2005 than it was last year (45 percent vs. 52 percent). In fact, the "best" defense the Cardinals face in their first four games is the Seahawks. In addition, Denny Green’s team manages to avoid all the top defensive units until Week 16, when they face the Eagles. If AZ players like Kurt Warner and rookie RB J.J. Arrington come out of the gate strong, be sure to take action. AZ has the luxury of facing the Lions, Rams, 49ers, Titans and Texans in 2005. Any way you cut it, some good match-ups will be had.

* In part, as a result of going 15-1 last year, the Steelers finally play a schedule with above-average difficulty. Prior to 2005, the Steelers always seemed to enjoy a major scheduling advantage. To properly evaluate this situation, keep in mind the Steelers faced a relatively easy schedule in 2001, 2002, 2003 and 2004. Pittsburgh’s offense line must continue to play at a high level if the Steelers are to have offensive success again in 2005. The good news, late in the season the Steelers face the Browns and Lions. Both are questionable defensive teams so Bettis, Staley, Ward and Company could deliver when you need it most.

* Due to a disappointing performance in 2004, the Saints have a slightly easier schedule in 2005. Aaron Brooks and the Saints will battle foes with a 49 percent win rate. It’s time for Brooks to step up or he could be history in New Orleans. In Week 16, with many FF Super Bowls hanging in the balance, Brooks, McAllister and Joe Horn face their easiest defensive foe all year, the Lions.

* In a case of the rich getting richer, things look very promising for Colts offense from Weeks 3 to 7. Over that five-week stretch Peyton Manning, Reggie Wayne, Marvin Harrison and Edge James will work their magic against the Browns, Titans, 49ers, Rams and Texans before a bye in Week 8. It doesn’t get much easier than that, and it hardly seems fair.

* The Rams should have no excuses. They have a much easier schedule in 2005. In fact, they have the second most favorable shift in schedule difficulty in the entire league. In addition, Mike Martz’s unit plays the easiest schedule in the NFL. Bulger, Holt, Jackson and Bruce open the season against the 49ers, Cardinals, Titans and Giants. If you want your Fantasy team to get off to a good start, load up on the Rams.

* Despite a winning season in 2004, the Eagles (47 percent to 45 percent), Packers (51 percent to 50 percent) and Vikings (50 percent to 48 percent) all appear to have easier schedules in 2005. And, we’ll find out early just how good the Vikings are without Randy Moss. In Week 1 Culpepper takes on the always-rugged Bucs defense.

* The Packers should be able to pile on Fantasy points the first two weeks facing the Lions and Browns. In addition, a few weeks later they get the porous Saints defense. If you own Brett Favre, Ahman Green or Javon Walker and they’re really kicking it after Week 5, consider trading them and make sure you get plenty in return. You might be able to pull a classic sell-high move and dump the Packers' trio right before their stock drops. Over the next 12 weeks, they’ll face much better defenses, including the Ravens in critical Week 15.

* On the flip side, look at those poor Bengals. During a six game period, Carson Palmer and Rudi Johnson face the Ravens twice and the Steelers twice. And, overall the Bengals' schedule is more difficult in 2005. About the only good news here is during FF playoff time -- the Bengals face the Browns and Lions, two below-average defensive teams. On paper, plan for the Bengals' offense to start out decent, fade during mid season and bounce back again late in the year.

* The Cleveland Browns have a legitimate gripe about their luck! If losing Kellen Winslow to injury in 2004 and 2005 wasn’t bad enough, the Browns' 2005 schedule actually gets significantly more difficult. In 2005, the Browns will be battling teams with a combined 53 percent win percentage. In 2004, before the season started, Cleveland’s opponents tallied a 49 percent win rate. And, against that level of competition, the Browns only managed to go 4-12. It figures to be a long year for QB Trent Dilfer, rookie WR Braylon Edwards and RB Lee Suggs.

* Other teams facing harder schedules in 2005 (relative to 2004) include the Chiefs, Broncos and Chargers. In fact, despite a poor showing last year, KC faces its most difficult schedule in several years, playing the Pats, Bills, Jets and Eagles this season.


Against the Run / Against the Pass
Examining the 2005 Schedule using an opponent's record from the prior year gives you a reasonable idea of schedule difficulty. Sure, its far from perfect, still it offers you a "vaguely right" approach.

Ideally, for Fantasy Football purposes, we'd like to objectively segment defensive team pass and rush performance. Then, everything else being equal, forecast passing and rushing using last year's data. The problem is, in going from last year to this year, everything else isn't equal.

If you segment last year’s defensive pass and defensive rush performance and follow it blindly, you face the very real risk of being "precisely wrong." All that being said, year-to-year pass/rush data does offer a modest level of predictive accuracy. Given that, below are a few observations to consider.

* Last season in this space, I identified the Colts as the team having the easiest pass defense schedule. We said, “Peyton Manning owners could really be loving life if this data holds up.” Well, Peyton Manning took full advantage and broke many of Dan Marino’s passing records. This season, the Jacksonville Jaguars have the distinction of facing the easiest pass defense schedule. Byron Leftwich owners, are you listening?

* Presumably it’s Tatum Bell, but regardless of who it is, the RB that gets the bulk of carries in Denver this year could once again turn out to be special. The Broncos have one of the easiest schedules when it comes to opposing run defense. 

* After Pittsburgh, Atlanta arguably had the second best rushing attack in the NFL last year. In 2005, the rich could get richer. According to last year's data, Michael Vick and the Falcons face a very soft run defense schedule.

* The Carolina Panthers get a break based on their schedule. Assuming they can get someone healthy to carry the rock, Carolina should enjoy some success rushing in 2005. Out of 32 NFL teams, Carolina has the fourth easiest run defense schedule.

* We all know the Ravens love to run the ball. But, on paper, Jamal Lewis faces the eighth most difficult run defense schedule in 2005. Weeks 8 to 11 look particularly hard.

* Using last year's data and this year's schedule, the Bengals, Dolphins, Browns, Colts and Giants may have the biggest challenge running. While prior year rush defense offers some forecasting validity, obviously don't count out Edge James. However, Rudi Johnson, Lee Suggs and rookie RB Ronnie Brown could be in for some extra hard sledding in 2005. The Browns play the hardest schedule against the run; the Bengals face the second most difficult.

* Last year's data suggests the Jags, Bears, Titans, Vikings and Broncos have an easy 2005 schedule when it comes to passing. Not far behind, Peyton Manning and the Colts are next on the list. We know the Colts will be passing plenty. However, the Bears have implemented a new offensive scheme which is run oriented so don't be shocked if Chicago's passing offense doesn’t do much despite their schedule.

* Jake Plummer could once again make for an excellent late round value pick. Don’t forget, last year, in many Fantasy leagues Plummer actually outscored Vick, Brady, Hasselbeck and Aaron Brooks. Plus, Denver plays a soft passing defense schedule in 2005. 

* Carson Palmer isn't going to be catching any breaks this season due to an easy schedule. Using 2004 stats, the Bengals, by far, will be facing the best cumulative pass defense this year. Likewise, Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers will also have their work cut out for them moving the ball in the air.

* The Tampa Bay Bucs should come up big running the ball in 2005. Coach Gruden’s squad plays the easiest schedule in the entire NFL when it comes to opposing run defense. Add to that Tampa drafted one of the most exciting college RBs to come out in the past five years, and it figures the Bucs will be gaining big yards on the ground. The punch line? Keep you eye on Carnell “Cadillac” Williams. As a pro prospect, Williams fairly easily outranked Steven Jackson, Kevin Jones, Clinton Portis, William Green and Larry Johnson when they were drafted.

* Deuce McAllister managers should be happy about the Saints schedule. New Orleans plays the third easiest schedule against the run in 2005. The fact the Saints also drafted super stud OT Jammal Brown certainly doesn’t hurt McAllister’s stock. In my book, Brown looks like an excellent NFL prospect and should be able to create some big lanes for Deuce.


Table II– Using 2004 Data to Estimate 2005 Pass/Run Schedule Difficulty

Next, I’ll provide you with some very specific forecast projection data.

Tables IIb thru IIg were obtained by averaging a team’s offense with their opponent’s defense. By using this method, we’ve crafted a highly detailed look ahead for 2005. It provides one with a reasonable assessment of schedule difficulty. Leveraging prior year data yields a sensible level of predictive accuracy, but it’s certainly far from perfect. This data is best used as a guidepost, not an absolute. Each data cell contains a projection and the team’s opponent. We color-code the areas of opportunity in green and flag the more difficult areas in red.